Barone Sifts the Numbers

Veteran political analyst Michael Barone writes for RealClearPolitics about the state of the presidential race, with particular focus on the details of the polling at this point.

There has been much focus on Trump's negative numbers among women, but Clinton does even worse among non-college white men, only 14 percent of whom support her according to the ABC/Washington Post poll. That's less than the 20 to 28 percent the May network polls show Trump winning among Hispanics.

Almost all of Clinton's popular vote majorities have come from black voters, especially in the South. Exit polls showed her losing white voters to Sanders in every non-Southern state where one was conducted.

Trump's biggest majorities came, especially in the crucial March primaries, from non-college whites. Not for nothing did he say on the night of the Nevada caucuses, "I love the poorly educated."

The higher turnout this year in Republican than Democratic contests suggests that Trump voters are energized, while Clinton may have trouble turning out heavily Democratic voters, especially the young.

I think it fair to say Barone believes Trump supporters can be cautiously optimistic.