Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Hang In There

A quick survey of the MSM suggests everyone there believes Hillary's win is a foregone conclusion. The final debate happens tonight, but it has largely been written off as irrelevant.

Is there any reason for optimism? Well, Drudge Report cites two polls that show the candidates even and one with Trump ahead. The L.A. Times poll shows Trump ahead by less than a point, effectively even. Rasmussen Reports has the two dead even at 42% each. Both are daily polls. Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll shows Trump with a 1% lead, 41% vs. 40%. It is alleged by Drudge and others that the IBD/TIPP poll has been the most accurate over the last three presidential elections.

So ... just maybe there is still reason to hope, if not to be confident, that The Donald might pull out a Brexit-like surprise in early November. To be sure, the RCP polling average says otherwise, but averages tend to reflect the conventional wisdom, whatever that is at the moment.

At this moment, the CW is that Trump loses. In two recent occasions, the CW has been absurdly wrong: Brexit and the referendum which rejected the Colombian peace deal with FARC. So ... perhaps we have a glimmer of hope. We may know more this time tomorrow, or we may not.