In his latest effort to end the fighting in Ukraine, President Trump has given Russia 50 days to get serious about negotiating with Ukraine an actual no-violence truce. Failure to do so means Trump will impose 100% tariffs on all imports to the US from nations which continue to trade with Russia, primarily for its oil.
The US is such a large market for imports that oligopsony is probably an accurate name for the market facing most exporters. They really don't want to be priced out of the US market by high tariffs.
A tariff of 100% means a product which formerly cost a buyer in the US $10 will now cost $20. Most impacted will be China, India, and Brazil, each of which export a lot to the US and currently buy a lot of discounted Russian oil.
Those nations will have to decide whether buying cheaper Russian oil is worth losing most of their export business with the US. Trump is betting (a) they won't, and (b) they will tell Russia so. He believes they will urge Putin to stop the fighting lest they buy their oil on the open market from non-Russian sources.
Do you suppose those now buying discounted Russian oil realize that if Putin stops the war, it may well be that Russia will no longer have to discount its oil to sell it? That the price they pay for oil will go up either way?
If Putin refuses to end the war, US relations with India and Brazil will suffer, as apparently neither poor country cares much about the fighting in Ukraine. Our relations with China will remain frosty, but that's no change.
Trump is the first president to recognize what enormous leverage our demand for imports give us in influencing nations which export, if not to survive, at least to thrive. I imagine he secretly thinks the rest of us are dopes for not realizing this decades sooner, as apparently he did.
