Overnight the air war by Israel and the US against Iran’s Shia theocracy began. This morning, looking for details, I found this useful summary posted online by the Middle East Forum.
Nobody is talking about boots on the ground in Iran, so the basic question is this. Will the Iranians will rise up and overthrow their government? Obviously the hope is that they will.
If Iran’s people do not rebel, the mullahs can probably spread out, hunker down, and survive whatever punishment we can deliver from the air and sea. We can certainly cut off oil exports by ship, and interdict most air travel. They can probably close the Strait of Hormuz, which will further constrain the world’s oil supply and raise prices.
Iran shares land borders with several countries, none of which is a reliable US ally so overland travel cannot be cut off. They also have ports on the land-locked Caspian Sea over which we have no control.
These give them access to Russia, which owes us no favors and is a sometimes ally of Iran. However, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and may be of little help.
Plusses and minuses. Echoing a frequent Trump refrain, “We’ll see what happens.”
Later … An Israeli official, speaking on background, reports Israeli air strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Israeli intelligence normally gets such claims right.
Still later ... See also this MEF follow-up with more detail on the attacks and resultant destruction. The effectiveness of Iran's counterattacks, while extensive, is judged to be minimal.
