Several quotes by geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan from a speech delivered at the aPriori 2023 Manufacturing Insights Conference.
China has, at most, 10 years before it faces national dissolution. They will not be a unified industrialized nation state 10 years from now.Think of the three big things that have happened with Chinese demography in the last five years, officially. Number one, their population peaked. Number two, India’s population surpassed China’s. And number three, the United States, the average age of the US citizenry is now younger than that of the Chinese citizenry.
Those all happened in the last five years. And what we’ve discovered in the last five months is no, they didn’t. Those happened 10 years ago. China’s not about to peak; China peaked years ago. And we’re only now starting to get a feel for just how bad the situation is there.
My sense from reading the entire speech is that Zeihan is given to overstatement. So ... color him an optimist, but not a blind one by any means. Hat tip to Scott Pinsker of PJ Media for the link.
