Election Results

Obama wins, Romney loses. It turns out my faith in Gallup's polling model was misplaced. Plus a poor choice of Senate candidates cost the GOP a chance to pick up some seats.

COTTonLINE gets to spend another four years in opposition. In some ways it's more fun.

As we noted the other day, John Boehner's GOP-dominated House of Representatives is unlikely to cooperate much with either the Senate or the President. Ergo, mostly gridlock.

I do expect to see the budget can kicked down the road, possibly postponing the fiscal cliff.

Quote of the Day

Sean Trende (what a great name for the business he's in) of RealClearPolitics writing about the "guts" of the polling business:

By the time all is said and done, a pollster’s assumptions can play as important a role in the result as the data.

The importance of the various pollsters' assumptions has been so clear this year.

Gallup Final: Romney 49, Obama 48

The Gallup polling organization has posted their final numbers, which you can view here. Here is their summary of the findings:

President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup's final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%. 

I've gotta call that reason for continued optimism. Gallup is the oldest, and arguably most respected polling organization in the United States. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.

Vote for Manager Mitt

In the previous entry I said I sometimes have to hold my nose to vote the way I do. Not this year, not with Romney - he's a manager.

I spent my whole career training people like Mitt Romney, although most weren't as good as I believe him to be. Managers are people who figure out what needs to be done and decide what people and resources are needed to make it happen.

Many couldn't understand what Republican Romney was doing putting in place something like Obamacare in Massachusetts. I think I know. 

Romney was a Republican but Massachusetts was Democratic and wanted socialized medicine. Instead of being an ideologue, Governor Romney said the people who elected me want socialized medicine, I will get it for them, and he did. That's what managers do, get the job that needs doing done.

I think there is a chance a President Romney can get the job done for the United States. We have four years of evidence that President Obama, for whatever reason, does not get our job done. 

Let's give Mitt a chance.

Uninteresteds Should Stay Home

Jeff Greenfield writes an excellent article for Yahoo News in which he urges the undecided not to vote. COTTonLINE agrees, with one proviso.

There are two kinds of undecideds: those who aren't interested and don't care versus those who are genuinely torn between the attractions of the two candidates. For the first group, the uninvolved, I believe Greenfield is correct - stay home.

For the second group, those who, for example, like Obama's view on abortion but prefer Romney's view on government size and spending, I want that group to make a decision. This second group are informed voters who just can't find a party that encompasses their views.

I empathize, I'm in that second group. I've voted for centrist Democrats - not many, but more than one. Mostly I vote Republican, as this blog reveals, but sometimes I have to hold my nose to do it.

Mostly I understand why the party has to encompass values to which I do not subscribe. It's in order to get enough voters inside its "big tent" to win elections. Both parties do it, it is the downside of a two party system.

Noonan Scores for Romney

Y'all know I like Peggy Noonan's Wall Street Journal columns, even though the quality is variable. Her weekly column normally comes out on Thursday or Friday and last week it was okay but not spectacular.

Today she writes one out-of-cycle in anticipation of tomorrow's election. Today's column is a honey, when I finished reading it I had tears in my eyes. Let me quote a couple of choice sections:

Nobody knows anything. Everyone’s guessing.

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.

There is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline. (snip) He read the field perfectly in 2008. He would know if he’s losing now, and it would explain his joylessness on the stump. He is out there doing what he has to to fight the fight. But he’s still trying to fire up the base when he ought to be wooing the center.

I don't know if she's right, Noonan doesn't either and says as much up front. If you only read one column before this election, make it this one.

Time Change

If you haven't remembered to reset your clocks back to Standard Time, you'll be late for work or appointments later on today.

Tick ... Tick ... Tick ...

Forty-eight hours and counting - two days from now we should know the results of the 2012 elections. If you were a money bettor you'd put your money on Obama, I guess. I'm not and I won't. I want Romney to win.

Whoever is elected will face a tough bunch of challenges during the next four years. Particularly if the Congress continues to be divided as it now is. Harry Reid's Senate and John Boehner's House can hardly agree about what day it is. Gridlock seems guaranteed.

Furthermore, it's likely whoever is elected POTUS will get it by a slender margin - the exact opposite of a mandate. The nation is divided into tax payers and tax eaters, near enough 50-50.

Half of us contribute, half stand there with their hands out waiting for their redistributed share. Are we past the tipping point? I suspect we won't know until it's too late.

Burnout

Ellen Jean Hirst of the Chicago Tribune writes an article for The Detroit News about increased employee burnout as the years of recession drag on. It focuses on psychological issues and stress as a result of fewer workers being tasked to do the work of former colleagues who were laid off.

I have no quibble with the factors mentioned. On the other hand, a factor left out is that when firms first start to experience larger orders and an increase in work levels, they don't hire more workers but rather put their existing workforce on overtime.

In the short-to-medium run, overtime is less expensive than rehiring laid off workers. Extensive overtime then directly contributes to workplace stress as workers get less rest and sleep.

Instapundit: Intensity is Key

Glenn Harlan Reynolds, is the Web's well-known Instapundit and a University of Tennessee law professor. Here he writes for The Washington Examiner about the importance of intensity in Tuesday's presidential election. Reynolds believes it is the pivotal issue, for both parties.

Tossup

Here at COTTonLINE I''ve given you links to the columns of several smart political analysts who all predict a Romney win. The list included Karl Rove, Michael Barone, Jay Cost, and others.

Last night I watched PBS's Washington Week with four smart analysts: John Harris of Politico, John Harwood of CNBC, formerly of The Wall Street Journal, Amy Walter of ABC News, and Jackie Calmes of The New York Times. Sure, they all lean left to varying degrees but I respect their political acumen too, and they predict an Obama win.

In other words, there are historical precedents, statistics, trends, subgroups, enthusiasm levels, etc., that can be interpreted to point to a win by either Romney or Obama. Whichever way the race goes, historical precedents will be overthrown, wise analysts will have been wrong, polling organizations will have weighted their samples incorrectly.

Some are saying it's too close to call, that's a cop out. Any political maven worth his or her salt has to make a prediction.

Last night I bet someone a whole 5 cents (her max bet) that Romney will win. That's my call. Her prediction: a close Obama victory. Mine: Either a close Romney win or just maybe a clear Romney win (much lower probability).

We'll know which prognosticators are right or wrong - three and half days from now. I can hardly wait.

Quote of the Day

A "former CIA officer and senior Clinton administration official" anonymously says the following, as quoted in a Michael Moran article for RealClearWorld:

War with Iran is not about "when," ... depending on your definition, it's ongoing.

Paraphrasing children's TV show host Mr. Rogers:
"Can you say 'plausible deniability?'"

Barone: Predicts Romney

Michael Barone, one of the nation's best political analysts, does a survey of each of the battleground states. His conclusion, Romney wins enough of them to prevail.

Barone may be right, may be wrong, but his analytics are clear enough and out there for all to see and critique. Check out his reasoning here at The Washington Examiner.

Cost: Predicts Romney Win

The Weekly Standard's premier political analyst Jay Cost takes a different approach to predicting the outcome of this presidential election, ignores most of the numbers, and bases his call on history.

What does Cost see? He sees Romney winning, because (a) Mitt is more trusted on the economy, and (b) the independents favor him. I don't think you should ignore (c) which is that Cost prefers a Romney win, always a biasing factor.

Condemnation

The Las Vegas Review-Journal writes a blistering editorial condemning the Obama administration and the President himself. I guess you could call it their endorsement of Mitt Romney, but it is much more than that; it's really an indictment of Obama.

I'd quote parts of the editorial except for the LVRJ's supposed history of threatening to sue people who quote their works. So no quotes here, please go there and read it at their website. Hat tip to PJ Media for the link.

Unemployment Up

The Labor Department reported unemployment figures for October today. The U.S. unemployment rate is up from 7.8% to 7.9%. See the Associated Press article on the CBS Cleveland website. My favorite quote from the article:

Obama will face voters with the highest unemployment rate of any incumbent since Franklin Roosevelt.

Designer Singapore

Peter Harcher writes in The Sydney Morning Herald of the possibility that incoming Chinese president Xi Jinping sees Singapore as a model that China might usefully imitate. I believe Mr. Harcher has come late to the party.

It has been clear to me for perhaps a decade that China is attempting to model its economy and government on those of Singapore. That said, one is forced to also observe that China isn't too far along that evolutionary path.

China has caught onto the "capitalism creates wealth" part of Singapore's model. They haven't mastered the "corruption isn't tolerated" part of Lee's design for Singapore.

Do you see the reference in Harcher's article to most Singaporeans owning flats in government-owned buildings? Most places in the world, government housing turns into slums. Singapore is probably the only place in the world where government-owned housing is clean, well-maintained, and up-scale - a place where people want to live.

How does this happen? Mr. Lee's government won't tolerate slummy behavior. If you don't maintain your government housing, don't obey the law, they toss you out. Result - government housing is nice, people want to live there.

Singapore is a designer city state, designed and built by Lee Quan Yew. Behavioral, political, oratorical and economic freedoms are limited. On the other hand, those who follow Lee's rules live better than most people in the surrounding countries. Most Singaporeans are happy with their lot. Those who don't like Lee's little paradise leave.

Grins from Down Under

There is a temptation to think the opinion elites in other countries don't much like us. Therefore it's fun to read an editorial like this one from The Sydney Morning Herald in Oz, which quite frankly admires the U.S.

Pew: No Ground Game Advantage

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press concludes their polling reveals a statistic that is very gloomy for Team Obama, which has touted its ground game:

The candidates are ... running about even when it comes to the ground game. (snip) And with a fifth of likely voters reporting already having cast their ballots, neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.

This is good GOP news since their voters are more likely to actually vote in any year, and this year:

The poll finds that Romney’s supporters are more likely than supporters of Obama to say they are highly engaged and certain to vote.

With an equal ground game and greater voter enthusiasm, the GOP would appear to have an edge.

Karl Rove Predicts

Karl Rove, the "architect" of W's two election wins, writes for The Wall Street Journal that the auguries point to a Romney win. He even puts numbers on the outcome:

Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

COTTonLINE hopes Rove is correct. However, honesty requires us to note other respected pundits are predicting exactly the opposite.