Saturday, November 3, 2012


Here at COTTonLINE I''ve given you links to the columns of several smart political analysts who all predict a Romney win. The list included Karl Rove, Michael Barone, Jay Cost, and others.

Last night I watched PBS's Washington Week with four smart analysts: John Harris of Politico, John Harwood of CNBC, formerly of The Wall Street Journal, Amy Walter of ABC News, and Jackie Calmes of The New York Times. Sure, they all lean left to varying degrees but I respect their political acumen too, and they predict an Obama win.

In other words, there are historical precedents, statistics, trends, subgroups, enthusiasm levels, etc., that can be interpreted to point to a win by either Romney or Obama. Whichever way the race goes, historical precedents will be overthrown, wise analysts will have been wrong, polling organizations will have weighted their samples incorrectly.

Some are saying it's too close to call, that's a cop out. Any political maven worth his or her salt has to make a prediction.

Last night I bet someone a whole 5 cents (her max bet) that Romney will win. That's my call. Her prediction: a close Obama victory. Mine: Either a close Romney win or just maybe a clear Romney win (much lower probability).

We'll know which prognosticators are right or wrong - three and half days from now. I can hardly wait.