Identity Group Politics

John Hinderaker of Power Line weighs in with an explanation of the apparent dichotomy between the supposed "two Republican parties." In short, he concludes there aren't two different parties.

Hinderaker believes that in 2008 and 2012 the Republicans were the victims of 3-4 minority groups which - excited at having a non-white person as President - turned out in unprecedented numbers. If Dems conclude this is the case, they are likely to continue to nominate non-white candidates for President; Hillary wouldn't  generate the same turnout.

Hinderaker also infers that Obama had essentially zero coattails. This is why there are record numbers of GOP governors, a GOP-controlled House, and very many state legislatures GOP-controlled.

The 2014 midterm election results will give us insight into whether or not Hinderaker is correct. If 2014 results are like 2010 results, Hinderaker is probably correct. If 2014 results resemble the 2012 results, other things are at work. We'll know in 20 months.

A Girl's Best Friend

The ever-biting Mark Steyn, writing here for the Orange County Register, on the topic of the falling apart of modern marriage:

The most reliable constituency for Big Government is single women, for whom the state is a girl's best friend, the sugar daddy whose checks never bounce. A society in which a majority of births are out of wedlock cannot be other than a Big Government welfare society. 

Polls suggest Steyn is correct. Can you say "social disintegration?"

Whimsy

Not everything at COTTonLINE has to be deadly serious. Check out this article in The Daily Mail about a wee door showing up at the base of a tree in Golden Gate Park.

Megalomania

It is rare you get to read the megalomaniacal ravings of the North Korean leadership. Reuters has the complete text of the North Korean "declaration of (almost) war."

Notice their "this time we really, really do mean it" content:

They (U.S. & S. Korea) should clearly know that in the era of Marshal Kim Jong Un, the greatest-ever commander, all things are different from what they used to be in the past. 

This stuff is more fevered than the comments sections of a left-wing blog. Unfortunately for North Korea, they've cried "Wolf!" too many times for anyone to take them very seriously.

Climate Change Revisited, Again

Steven Hayward of Power Line has a good column summarizing the longer article in The Economist upon which The Australian article cited yesterday was based. Since The Economist has been a real warming alarmist, it is interesting to see them backing down.

Possibly the most intriguing statement is this, quoted by Hayward from The Economist:

Over the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar.

Go figure ....

More on Climate Change

An article in The Australian summarizes several climate studies which suggest that we know less than we thought we did about the interaction between so-called "greenhouse gases" and climate change. What puzzles scientists is that for the past 20 years the temperatures haven't been rising as predicted. Alas, alack ....

Our argument here at COTTonLINE has consistently been that there are not simple linear relationships among the climate-causing variables. Also that people who want to believe man is bad for the earth find relationships where, perhaps, none exist.

I am willing to stipulate that too many people jammed together in too little space, as in many cities, will create localized ugly conditions - air, water and soil pollution and mountains of trash.

In my view population density - number of people per square mile/kilometer - is the variable to watch. Spread people out and the earth handles their presence nicely.

Quote of the Day

Karl Rove, writing for The Wall Street Journal, on the topic of the President's relevance to the process of governing:

No president is ever irrelevant, but less than 10 weeks into his second term Mr. Obama's power is waning. Even members of his own party view him as an obstacle to getting things done.

Admittedly, Mr. Rove is biased against the POTUS.

Voting With Feet

Art Laffer is an economist with an extraordinarily practical mindset; Stephen Moore is a member of The Wall Street Journal's editorial board. Get them together and the product should be a powerful article, in this case about the relationship between state policies and population growth (no subscription required).

As we've noted before, people are moving from high tax, pro-union blue states to low tax, right-to-work red states. Laffer and Moore write that across the south states are moving to eliminate state income taxes, state capital gains taxes, and state estate taxes. Some states in the midwest are doing likewise, and they are growing.

People vote with their feet.

Why the Middle East?

Leon Hadar writes for The National Interest an article in which he questions why the U.S. should have any active role in the Middle East. Our efforts in the region have led to repeated failure, at great expense in both money and lives. And we're no more popular there today than we were twenty years ago. 

He is not alone in this view.

Most Americans (snip) are now telling pollsters that they want to see U.S. troops withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan as soon as possible, are opposed to new U.S.-led regime change and nation building in the Middle East, and are skeptical about the utility of Washington taking charge of the Israeli-Palestinian “peace process.”

In recent decades American foreign policy in the Middle East could be characterized as having followed Albert Einstein's definition of insanity:

Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Source: Brainy Quote.

Millennials

A fun article in the New York Times about the Millennials' relationship to money. See what it says:

The millennials’ relationship with money seems quite simple. They do not have a lot of it, and what they do have, they seem reluctant to spend.

Well ... that sure as heck isn't going to stimulate the economy.

Universities As Liberal Utopias

Robert Tracinski has a good article for RealClearPolitics on the question of why college students tend to vote for liberals. I think you'll enjoy his analysis, it parallels what I saw in 4+ decades in the college/university environment as an undergraduate, graduate student, and professor.

Tracinski notes that students supposedly seek independence, while they are economically dependent. In fact the university environment takes care of students while allowing them almost unlimited freedom in their personal lives. This quote sums it up:

No one pokes into your personal life or asks too many questions about who you’re sleeping with, what you’re smoking, or what you do with your free time. Finally, this whole lifestyle is paid for with huge amounts of debt, and it is considered bad form to ask too many questions about how big the debt is or how you’re ever going to pay it all back.

Does any of this sound familiar? Put it all together, and college life is the contemporary left’s ideal. The universities are liberal utopias.

At least from the undergraduate student's perspective.

Thatcher Was Right

Margaret Thatcher took a dim view of German reunification, which happened as her role as Prime Minister was ending. Some Brits are thinking maybe she was correct after all; see this article for The Telegraph (U.K.) by Iain Martin.

I find particularly moving his conclusion:

Germany is becoming too powerful for its own good and ours, again.

If you understand the carnage of World Wars I and II, those words can send shivers up your spine.

Court Watching

Trying to guess the outcome of SCOTUS deliberations is an occupation which employs a fair number of lawyer-journalists. Right now some such are predicting that the Court will decide that the folks defending California's Proposition 8 don't have "standing" to bring the case before the Supremes.

I'm no attorney, but I think this means the people bringing suit cannot show that they were in any way damaged by the U.S. appellate court's decision finding the constitutional amendment unconstitutional.

See a New York Times article on the arguments. Perhaps this Washington Post article covers more ground.

Quote of the Day

Sir Winston Churchill, on the topic of finance:

In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable.

What a wordsmith that man was. My source is the Power Line blog.

Why So Many Disabled?

Chana Joffe-Walt writing for This American Life on National Public Radio about the explosive growth of the federal disability rolls:

Somewhere around 30 years ago, the economy started changing in some fundamental ways. There are now millions of Americans who do not have the skills or education to make it in this country. 

As we automated various production processes and outsourced others overseas,  I remember asking myself "What will the people who once did these tasks do now?" It appears many receive disability payments; whether they should is another question.

NPR is liberal, but this is a good article nevertheless. Hat tip to Power Line for the link.

Who Is Latino?

Apparently there is quite an argument about whether the Pope, who has Italian parents but was born and raised in Argentina, can claim to be Latino. I believe if he says he is Latino, that's the end of it. See an Associated Press article from the Fresno Bee for more.

The largely unspoken issue is whether one needs Indian or African ancestors in order to be Latino. By this measure only the many mestizos are Latino.

Weird Frankenstein Science

"It's alive, Igor, alive." What horror movie comic imitator hasn't said those words? Now science is getting closer to doing just that, creating life.

See a Wall Street Journal article about successfully growing human parts in a lab jar. They've already grown simple body parts and implanted them. Now they're trying to do more complex structures.

Somewhere a  multi-billionaire has read this and is thinking "I'll have them grow me a new body to replace this old one that's wearing out." If I were that billionaire I'd sure think about doing it.

If they could only figure out how to download the contents of your tired, old brain into a new, fresh one....

The True Architect

Karl Rove was once called "the architect" of the George W. Bush presidency, or at least his two campaigns. I believe the title was earned.

However, the title Architect really belongs to Lee Kuan Yew, the gentleman who designed the city-state of Singapore, beginning in 1965. He still contributes significantly to its policies and structure.

In a recent discussion of immigration issues, sponsored by the Standard Chartered Bank, Mr. Lee met with former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, among others. He emphasized that nations like Singapore and Japan with low total fertility rates need immigration.

Mr. Lee particularly made a point about the quality of immigrants his nation receives.

We have the advantage of quality control of the people who come in so we have bright Indians, bright Chinese, bright Caucasians so the increase in population means an increase in talent.

Here we see the advantage of an architect-designed state. Singapore is able to disregard many of the quotas other governments must follow in order to placate various aggrieved groups. See the article on the website of Channel News Asia (Singapore), hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.

Quote of the Day

Omar Encarnacion, writing about the current state of Catholicism in Latin America for the journal Foreign Affairs, says something fascinating about Argentina:

The new pope’s country of origin makes him an odd choice if the goal is to excite Latin American Catholics. Argentina is widely known as a European society in exile. 

"A European society in exile" is an eerie way to characterize Argentina.

American Exceptionalism Lives

Victor Davis Hanson writes an appreciation of the merit-driven society that we still possess. See what he writes for RealClearPolitics on the subject, it is uplifting.