Monday, August 3, 2026

Perverse Incentives

Francis Menton posts as the Manhattan Contrarian and is often worth reading. Today he writes about two large pseudoscience scams that have been perpetrated upon us in recent years: the Covid overreaction spearheaded by Fauci, and the climate scare hoax. Menton concludes:

Is there any reason to believe that the still ongoing climate scare narrative is any more trustworthy than the Covid-scare narrative has proven to have been? Both have been backed by a vast research apparatus, almost entirely government funded, which looks to lose most of its funding and associated careers and promotions and prestige if there really is no underlying existential crisis.

The issue in both cases is perverse incentives, which reward scientists for exaggerating the dangers of the issue they are ideally situated to confront. Instead of “trust the science” the reward structure suggests we should “distrust the science,” or at least the scientists whose iron rice bowl it is.

Skepticism is in fact both healthy and appropriate - as Ronald Reagan famously said: "Trust, but verify." I'd call your attention to the fact that in both of the above cases, verification wasn't readily available. Hat tip to RealClearScience for the link.