Friday, July 22, 2011

Pew: GOP Gains Among Whites, Young

Go see seriously interesting polling results reported by the Pew Research Center for People & the Press. Scroll down to a table headed "Republicans Make Substantial Gains Among Young and Low-Income Whites."

Note that the table reports much more than that, although the heading is correct that young and low-income whites show the largest gains. Compare the 2008 margins to the 2011 margins.

The really stunning result is that, unlike 2008, today the only subgroup of whites in the entire country who favor the Democrats are in the Northeast. That group only favors Dems by a margin of one percentage point.

Notice the dramatic change in the party orientation of white women. This group changed from Dem +7 in 2008 to GOP +5 in 2011, a change of 12 percentage points. Something very interesting is happening in this group.

Another interesting shift is among white college graduates. The college grads shifted from a 2008 margin of Dem +1 to a 2011 margin of GOP +7, a change of 8 percentage points. In 2008 MSM pundits made much of white college grads favoring the Democrats, what will they say now?

The so-called Millennials, those born after 1980, have also been the focus of much attention. If you scroll down further you'll find that they've dramatically changed their orientation since 2008. Pew says:
Currently, 52% of Millennial voters are Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party while 39% are Republicans or lean to the GOP. This 13-point edge is less than half the size of the 32-point edge Democrats held three years ago.
If their margin can drop 19 points in three years, imagine what it will do in the next ten. Sounds like we'll be welcoming them into the GOP one day soon. Remember what Churchill said:
If you are not a liberal at twenty, you have no heart and if you are not conservative at thirty, you have no brain.