Friday, July 15, 2011

Spengler: Brutal Truths

David P. Goldman writes for the Asia Times (Hong Kong) under the nom de plume Spengler. He has a suitably gloomy column about the economic fate of the developed world, driven by demographics.

Populations in most developed nations are crashing as birth rates go below replacement, and the proportion of elderly citizens in these countries approaches half. Look at some of his trenchant remarks about the results of this shortfall:
During the present century the number of adults in affluent and productive countries will shrink by about a third. All of us will be poorer.
The citizens of the industrial nations have no choice but to accept lower returns on investment, reduced government largesse, and a poorer existence generally.
From the Wisconsin State House to the Palazzo Montecitorio in Rome, the only question is how fast governments will cut spending and for whom.
State and local government employment is falling sharply, with 21,000 layoffs in June alone. During the past year, US cities have shed 124,000 education jobs.
He also has snarky things to say about the developing countries, southern Europe, and the contributions of Africa, Latin America, and the Arab world. Spengler is no little ray of sunshine, I wish what he says didn't seem so sensible.