Friday, November 20, 2015

This Generation's Reagan Democrats

Hat tip to Breitbart for the link to an Ipsos poll where the French market research firm looked at the Trump phenomenon. They asked a number of questions including whether respondents agreed with the following three statements:
1) I don't identify with what America has become.
2) These days I feel like a stranger in my own country.
3) America is [NOT] a place I can feel comfortable as myself.
Ipsos identifies those agreeing with all three as "strongly nativist." People agreeing with two are labeled "moderately nativist" and those agreeing with only one are called "slightly nativist." You have to disagree with all three to earn their approving label of "not nativist." They also asked respondents' politics.
Fully 64% of Republicans are moderately or strongly nativist, including over a quarter (26%) who agree with all three of the nativist statements (compared to only 31% moderately or strongly nativist among Democrats). Such trends clearly show Trump’s appeal among the Republican base.

So who are these nativist voters who might be kingmakers in 2016? They look something like the Republican party in general. They tend to be whiter than the rest of the population, older, less likely to have a 4-year college degree and live in the South.
Might the nearly 1/3 of Democrats who feel like "strangers in a strange land" be potential Trump voters? I believe you could make a strong argument for that outcome. They could become this generation's Reagan Democrats.

Hat tip to the late R. Heinlein for coining the phrase "strangers in a strange land" in a very different context.