Monday, January 15, 2018

North By Northwest

Two days ago we got the U-Haul data on interstate movements, today we get the Washington Free Beacon’s summary of United Van Lines data on which states are experiencing out-migration.
Illinois, New Jersey, and New York were the top states in the nation for outbound moves in 2017, according to data from United Van Lines.

"The Northeast continues to experience a moving deficit with New Jersey (63 percent outbound), New York (61 percent) and Connecticut (57 percent) making the list of top outbound states for the third consecutive year," the report states. "Massachusetts (56 percent) also joined the top outbound list this year."
Most United Van Lines moves are paid for by employers, while U-Haul moves are mostly self-financed. As such, they represent looks at different market segments, different socio-economic strata, and as such, complement each other.

Meanwhile, five of the top six states for UVL inbound moves are in or near the Pacific Northwest: OR, ID, NV, SD and WA. The outlier is VT.

Three of these six have no state income tax - NV, SD, and WA - while OR has no sales tax. Half of the top six have no income tax while only 14% of all states are without an income tax. Without doing the cross-tabs, I’d eyeball the by-chance likelihood of income tax-free states being half of the top six as near zero.