Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Understanding the Meaning of “Path”

In his first State of the Union address President Trump offered, as part of a comprehensive immigration reform package, “a path to citizenship” for some 1.8 million young people brought here illegally as children. Now let’s parse what “a path to citizenship” means, starting with his actual words.
Under our plan, those who meet education and work requirements, and show good moral character, will be able to become full citizens of the United States.
He didn’t offer to hand them citizenship, just for being here, as Democrats would wish. As I understand it, he is offering them citizenship sometime in the future perhaps a decade from now if, in the interim, they finish school, stay out of jail, and stay off public assistance. In short, if they earn it.

The wisdom of old time horse players is that you bet horses according to how they’ve run in the past. Applying that wisdom to these young illegals, what are the odds that they will avoid trouble and do the other positive things necessary to qualify for citizenship a decade downstream? My horseback guess (pun intended) is that less than half will so qualify, based on their checkered track record to date.

Translation: the citizenship offer is merit-based and, to gain it, these young illegals have to stay on the proverbial straight and narrow path for a decade. Many will not do so. Those who have the self-discipline to succeed have a reasonable chance of eventually becoming Republican voters, no bad thing.