Isn't this the most fun presidential primary season you ever saw? I love it. On the GOP side we have three different winners in the first three contested states: Huckabee in Iowa, McCain in New Hampshire, and Romney in Michigan (my home state of Wyoming doesn't count since nobody went there to campaign). What if Thompson wins in South Carolina and Giuliani wins in Florida? These outcomes are possible and, to a politics junkie, seductive. Imagine if we had an oldtime convention where nobody won on the first ballot and delegates really mattered.
I was listening to political analyst Dick Morris on Fox tonight. Morris sees the GOP fragmenting into three groups: the social conservatives backing Huckabee, the economic conservatives who are for Romney, and the national defense conservatives who support McCain or Giuliani. To be sure, the party includes all three groups but then it has done so since the Reagan days. Unlike Morris, I'd say that was nothing new.
Romney won Michigan by doing a better job of pandering to Michiganders' fears of an imploding domestic auto industry. He promised them he would fix the industry's problems, and they bought it. I'm not sure why they thought he would or could deliver on that promise, if elected. I guess it was a measure of how desperate they feel, sort of a "whoever is the last to leave Michigan, please turn out the lights" feeling.
On the Democrat side Hillary did well, against Undecided, which was a surrogate for Obama/Edwards. The Obama and Edward names weren't on the ballot since the Democratic National Committee asked them not to file. A closer analysis of the votes showed HRC did well among women, whites, and lower income folks. Obama was favored by blacks, the young, and the more affluent.
Morris is virulently anti-Hillary. He believes it is time for Edwards to form common cause with Obama, in return for a Vice Presidential slot. Together they could run as the true candidates of change, one of the magic words of this campaign. Morris is concerned that the two of them are splitting the pro-change vote, enabling HRC to get the nomination.
On Saturday we learn how South Carolina is going to vote; I can hardly wait for the next episode in this continuing drama.
