Congratulations to John McCain on winning the Republican primary election in South Carolina. He beat Gov. Huckabee by about 4%. Still, in a multi candidate field, McCain only managed to get about one vote in three. It could be argued that Huckabee and Thompson split the social conservative vote. However, in SC there is a very large national defense conservative group, many active duty and retired military, and their families. Much of this group voted for McCain.
Meanwhile, in the Nevada caucuses Hillary edged Barack in the popular vote while he actually got one more delegate than she did. The big loser in NV was Edwards who got like 4% of the folks supporting him. On the Republican side Romney won handily as (a) he was the only candidate who campaigned there and (b) NV has a large Mormon population, nearly all of which votes Republican.
So...this round of contests did not produce the kind of puzzling outcomes that the earlier ones produced. In a week we'll see the Florida primaries and watch Giuliani either redeem his campaign strategy, or more likely, crash and burn. Hunter is dropping out and one expects Thompson to do likewise, if not this week, then surely after FL.
We likely saw the high water of the Huckabee phenomenon in Iowa, although he ran a strong second in SC. His populist message doesn't work for most mainstream Republicans but he remains one of the most talented campaigners in the party. He has more unforced, natural charm than anybody running, with the possible exception of Barack Obama. He could well end up as a VP candidate.
