Sunday, January 27, 2008

It Happened in South Carolina, Part II

Barack Obama kicked some serious backside in the Democratic primary in South Carolina. He won 55% of the total vote, Clinton got 27%, and Edwards got 18%. Admittedly, many Democratic voters in SC are, like Obama, African-Americans. Nevertheless, he did surprisingly well. Obama got two votes for every one Clinton got, and she in turn got three votes for every two that Edwards got.

SC is probably the highwater mark of the Edwards campaign. Absent catastrophic revelations about the other candidates, it is doubtful that he will do better than 18% anywhere in the future. However, given the proportional nature of Democrat primaries, he is gaining delegates in each state. Should the two leaders fall short of a first ballot majority at the Denver convention, Edwards could have the power to pick the Democrat nominee.

Our next primary benchmark will be the GOP primary in Florida, where McCain is looking somewhat less unstoppable than formerly. Unfortunately for Rudy, the person giving McCain problems is Romney.