Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Age Matters

It turns out that age is the best predictor of whether a voter will choose Clinton or Obama, older voters go for Clinton, age 60, younger voters go for Obama, whose age is 46. The exception is African-American voters who tend to choose Obama regardless of age. See this article for more details.

The Democratic primary has boiled down into a generational or cohort-based struggle. This cannot be good news for Obama, since historically young persons vote in much smaller numbers than older folks.

That same fact, that older Americans are more likely to vote, is what tells us that the fears about the future of the Social Security system are overblown. Yes, the system does need repair. However, the high voting rate of seniors guarantees that politicians will eventually repair it, if they want to keep their elected jobs.

If Clinton is the eventual nominee, then age will not be a large factor in the general election. If Obama is the eventual Democratic nominee, cohort politics will continue to matter in November.