Thus far in 2009, 40% of Americans interviewed in national Gallup Poll surveys describe their political views as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 21% as liberal. This represents a slight increase for conservatism in the U.S. since 2008, returning it to a level last seen in 2004.Remember who won the presidency in 2004? A much-hated Republican named George W. Bush won in 2004; won with a bigger margin than he had in 2000.
With 40% reporting conservative, the GOP only has to get 28% of moderates to vote Republican and you've got a GOP president. That doesn't sound so difficult, you can give up 70% of the moderates and still elect a president. That is definitely doable.
The only thing we have to fear is that "liberal" has become such an ugly label that many Democrats call themselves "moderates." That is a distinct possibility. Still, we keep hearing that the number of independents is growing and they are likely to be found in that moderate group.
The demographic crunchers are writing articles currently warning Republicans that they are in trouble, I believe Gallup's numbers say something quite different. Take heart.
