Sunday, June 28, 2009

Trouble in Honduras

The military has today overthrown the elected President of Honduras. Go here for Reuters' report of the story. To read their version of what happened, you'd think "oh, those ugly, anti-democratic soldiers."

If you read to the end of the story you begin to see hints of why this coup happened. President Zelaya wasn't happy with the Honduran constitution, which only permits a President one four year term. He had scheduled a poll to see whether the people backed his intent to change the constitution to enable him to run for additional terms, as Fidel Castro did in Cuba for several decades.

The Honduran military, worried about the reemergence of strongman rule in this former banana republic, wouldn't facilitate his constitution-change efforts. Eventually they concluded Zelaya had to go. The Wall Street Journal's Mary Anastasia O'Grady, whose beat is Latin America, has a view of the situation that roughly parallels mine.

The real test will be whether the military in Honduras goes ahead with the scheduled presidential election to elect a new civilian president to replace Zelaya. If they do, then their claim of defense of the constitution will be justified. If they don't, then Zelaya's condemnation of them as throw-backs to the caudillo era in Latin American politics will seem proven.

Let's watch to see what happens.