Political Analysis

See Sean Trende's excellent analysis of the electoral possibilities for 2010, done for RealClearPolitics. He lays out scenarios depending on whether this election will be anti-incumbent, anti-liberal, or anti-Democrat. It will undoubtedly be one of the three, with the first being least damaging to the Democrats, and the last being most damaging. He concludes:

If 2010 is an anti-Democrat year, rather than simply an anti-liberal year, we could see absolutely catastrophic results for the Democrats in the 73 Republican-leaning districts. If we take the fifty percent casualty rate that the Republicans suffered in 2006, add in the twelve retiring Congressmen, and again assume a dozen Democratic Congressmen in marginally Democratic districts lose, then the Democrats are on pace to lose over sixty seats.

Wouldn't it be wonderful to have an ex-Speaker Pelosi?