Writing for The Cook Political Report, National Editor Amy Walter selects data from the NBC News/Marist polls for this year, and for 2012. She looks at what people have called the "Obama coalition" of Democrats, Independents, women, minorities, the unmarried and those with modest incomes.
With the data for three states - Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina - Walter examines three things for each subgroup: Obama's popularity today, his popularity two years ago, and the current standing for the Senate candidates with that group. The first thing that strikes you is that Obama's popularity in every group, even Democrats, has dropped by 10% or more. Among Independents, the results are much worse: down 20% to 33%.
In all three states Obama is now in negative numbers among 18-29 year olds, women, and those with modest incomes. Meanwhile, Dem Senate candidates in the three states are at break-even or worse and in most cases the loss of Independents can be blamed for their shaky support level.
Politics is like Morton Salt; when it rains, it pours.
