Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Different Voter Cohorts

Ron Brownstein has spent much of his life thinking about domestic politics, and it shows. Writing for The Atlantic, his focus is the systematic difference between those who vote in presidential election years, and voters in midterm election years like 2014.

If you've been paying attention, you know the rough outlines of what he's going to say: midterm voters are older and whiter, on average, than presidential voters. This difference advantages Republicans in the midterms and Democrats in the presidential years.

As the population grows less white, Democrats benefit. As the population grows older, Republicans benefit. Both trends are happening, at the same time.

Brownstein expects the "browning" of the electorate eventually to overwhelm its aging. Decades will pass before we'll know if he's correct.