American Inaction

Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Michael Auslin takes the Obama administration to task for not responding forcefully to Russian provocations in Syria and Chinese adventurism in the international waters off China..

Aggressive opportunists scent weakness, and they understand that when there is no price to be paid for their provocations, they can move to bigger and riskier actions. The Obama administration would undoubtedly argue that its sanctions against Russia and its rebalance to the Asia-Pacific are hampering Messrs. Xi and Putin. The evidence argues otherwise, and the trend is moving clearly away from cooperation and the resolution of problems.

In 1939, on the eve of World War II, the British historian Arnold Toynbee lamented that for years the Western powers had “held, between them, the destinies of the world in suspense.” Their inaction and miscalculations destroyed faith in the global order from which they benefited so much and correspondingly emboldened their enemies. America’s adversaries are counting on similar hesitation and indecision, and they show through their actions that they won’t stop until persuaded that the United States will rise to their challenge.

It is certain the U.S. will do nothing before early 2017, when a new president will be inaugurated. Moscow and Beijing understand this 15 month window of opportunity.