• It is a surprise to governments, experts and outside observers.Then Goure' quotes Frank Hoffman who defines a pink flamingo as “a predictable event that is ignored due to cognitive biases of a senior leader or a group of leaders trapped by powerful institutional forces.” Our President, and his advisors, display such cognitive biases.
• The event has a major impact.
• After the first instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight (which also is why a Black Swan event never happens the same way twice).
Goure' lists ten Russian military provocations which have happened recently, and adds:
Not one of these events was anticipated by defense or intelligence agencies. Classic Black Swans. Except, when you line up all these Black Swans they turn into a Pink Flamingo.Famously no fan of Churchill, Obama seemingly has picked the anti-Churchill - Neville Chamberlain - as his role model. His choice emboldens Putin much as Chamberlain emboldened Hitler.
The events listed above point to a single conclusion, a reality that our senior leaders wish mightily to ignore. This conclusion is that Vladimir Putin is out to directly challenge the power and unity of the Western Alliance, generally, and the United States specifically. Moreover he is willing to use military force and defy the West to counter his actions.
