Argentina voted today to elect a new president, a successor to Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner who is term-limited out of office this December. Pre-election polling suggested the candidate of her party, Daniel Scioli, governor of Buenos Aires province, would decisively beat the two other major party candidates.
As Reuters reports via CNBC, the polling was wrong. The mayor of Buenos Aires City, Mauricio Macri, is effectively tied with Scioli at 35+% each, a third candidate - Sergio Massa - got roughly 20% which suggests a very divided electorate.
Fernandez isn't as popular as the pundits have claimed. Very clearly her ability to influence the voting for her successor is substantially less than anticipated.
Argentine election law calls for a run-off between Scioli and Macri, the two leaders. The article doesn't predict how Massa's voters will choose between the final two. I predict Macri will get more of them than Scioli, as they were anti-Fernandez votes.
