Friday, October 9, 2015

The Ryan Boomlet

Reuters reports via Yahoo News that Republicans in the House of Representatives are focusing on former vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan as a desired replacement for resigned Speaker John Boehner. Ryan has expressed extreme reluctance to accept the post.

Them wanting him more than he wants the job gives him bargaining power, which he should use to assure cooperation of a majority of the House. If Ryan is as smart as he is widely believed to be, he will only allow them to elect him Speaker after he extracts pledges of cooperation from a large enough majority of his party's members to pass legislation with no Democratic cooperation.

Failing that, Ryan should decline and let some other poor sap take the job.

The real issue is that the GOP Freedom Caucus, a very conservative group of some 40 Reps., come from districts where shutting down the government to frustrate Obama is good politics, just what a majority of their constituents crave. Boehner, and likely McCarthy, believe doing so is political "poison" resulting in a perception that Republicans can't govern.

Clearly, McCarthy believed he couldn't get the cooperation necessary to govern, where "govern" means passing legislation Obama will sign. Likely he was correct. Does Ryan have enough leverage to get such cooperation? Doubtful, but possible.