A New Politics

The Washington Free Beacon is Matthew Continetti's site, he writes today about a possible party realignment reflected in the Trump movement. Continetti opines party alignment changes are no new phenomenon, and gives examples, including the Goldwater swing to conservatism for the GOP and the McGovern swing to the left for Democrats.

The tendency in Washington is not to take Donald Trump seriously. To describe him as a clown, as someone who will drop out, as someone whose beliefs are non-ideological. I believe that to dismiss him is a mistake. Since declaring his candidacy in June, Trump has been consistent on issues of immigration and trade and security. He has not deviated from building a wall on the southern border, slapping tariffs on imports, criticizing the 2003 Iraq war, praising Vladimir Putin, describing Ukraine as Germany’s problem not ours, and saying Middle East peace depends on Israeli concessions.

Trump’s nationalism has far more in common with the conservatism of Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s National Front, than with the conservatism of Ronald Reagan. Support for a “Muslim ban” is par for the course among European nationalists—by calling for it here all Trump has done is confirm how closely American politics resembles European politics. Reagan was an immigration advocate who signed the 1986 amnesty law.

Indeed, Republican nominees since Ronald Reagan have been internationalist in outlook. They have been pro-free trade and pro-immigration, have supported American leadership in global institutions, and have argued for market solutions and traditional values. A Republican Party under Donald Trump would broadly reject this attitude. It would emphasize protection in all its forms—immigration restriction, trade duties, a fortress America approach to international relations, and activist government to address health care and veterans’ care. Paeans to freedom and opportunity and equality and small government would give way to admonishments to strive, to fight, to win, to profit.

Continetti overstates some of Trump's positions to make his point, but the overall sweep of his analysis feels correct. You could even see stylistic similarities between Trump and Marine Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Perhaps ideologies are more shaped by their times than we would wish. A minority on Wall Street has already switched to supporting Democrats, Clinton in particular.