A title in the RealClearPolitics list this morning - Eugene Robinson in the Washington Post "Only you and I can stop Trump" - got me thinking about a question which I share with you. My question is this: Exactly how many who voted for Trump have, at this point in his presidency, decided not to vote for his reelection?
You know the number is larger than zero, but do you suppose many of his 2016 supporters have deserted him? In the absence of hard data, I'd judge not more than the equally small number who voted for someone else but have actually liked what has been accomplished since January, 2017.
As we say in the trade, net-net it is likely a wash. A few never-Trumpets have given in and a few who just couldn't stand Hillary will vote for a less toxic Democrat.
To win in 2020 Democrats will have to turn out voters who stayed home in 2016, while not losing those who showed up. And they'll have to turn out people in purple-to-red states, swinging several back the their side.
A superficially logical way to do this is to nominate someone of color, trying to replicate the Obama electoral 'magic.' If, however, this drives away any significant number of white Democrats, it may prove counterproductive. An interesting dilemma, is it not?
Bush II was not a consequential president. Like him or hate him, Trump is consequential, things are happening, progressive heads are exploding.
It's possible Democrats learn the wrong lesson from Obama's success. Perhaps Obama won because he was clearly not hapless George W. Bush, as well as because he was black.
Most presidents who seek to do so win a second term. The only two elected presidents, within my memory, who failed to win reelection were Carter and Bush I.
Serious Democrats will set their sights on 2024, not 2020. Probably the smartest thing an ambitious Democrat can do in 2020 is to be a strong runner-up who falls short of the nomination but gets plenty of visibility.
