One of the best minds in international affairs writing today - George Friedman - weighs in on the interminable Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It is a useful overview; his conclusions won't please many but seem reasonable. He writes at Geopolitical Futures:
The weakness of the Palestinians is that no great power saw them as a conventional military force, particularly because Arab countries didn’t want such a major military force in their countries. They were forced into a posture that trained them in hijackings and bombings but not in conventional warfare. What you see in Gaza today is a modern conventional military facing “soldiers” inspired by a very different culture. The aid Palestine receives from Iran today doesn’t fundamentally change this. The Palestinians can’t win, but they can inflict damage on Israel.
The Palestinians are seen by many as victims. That’s not a useful term here, but if we use it, then they were victims not only of Israel but also of Egypt, Syria and the Soviets, all of which saw use for them as small groups of covert operatives but had no desire for them to create a modern Palestinian army in a neighboring country. Additionally, there was no neighboring country that would welcome such an army. An intifada with some suicide bombers will not bring down Israel, nor will it force it to the negotiating table. And the Palestinians have no allies that will help them become such a power.
Like the Kurds, the Palestinians are a people without a country. Both groups are used by various great and would-be-great powers when their mutual aims align but ultimately both are left without a seat when the 'music' stops. Geopolitics is a tough, cynical business, especially in blood-soaked arenas like the Middle East.
