Foreign affairs analyst George Friedman weighs in with some long-range “what if” thinking about the two active wars with which we’re concerned. He asks if there is a chance the two merge into one?
Friedman points to a sort-of alliance between Russia and Israel and wonders if Russia’s troubles with its Islamic citizens could flare up into an active theater. The mechanism he posits is the war in Lebanon spreading out to the north and east. I don’t see Israel’s highly capable but small military enlarging the theater of war to the extent he imagines.
Could a charismatic leader emerge with the ability to pull all the competing strands of Islam into a single, militant caliphate ready to take on the world? I can imagine it and so can others, but the likelihood is not particularly great. Iran hopes to lead such a movement but their sway beyond the Shia faithful is limited.
I like Friedman‘s analysis but I believe this time he has overreached.
