My favorite commenter on foreign affairs - George Friedman - asks us to consider an aspect of the current Middle East conflict which hasn’t been much mentioned. Two of the frontline opponents of Israel - Hamas and Hezbollah - represent different branches of Islam, Sunni and Shia respectively.
Both oppose Israel but, presumably neither wants to much strengthen the hand of the other. Iran supports both but very likely only listens to Hezbollah, while considering their support for Hamas an arm’s-length “marriage of convenience” not unlike our alliance with the Soviet Union during World War II.
Friedman points to Hezbollah’s belated attack on Israel which, to be more effective, would have been coordinated with Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. Hezbollah supports Iran’s long-term goal of forming a Shia empire in the region, whereas one supposes neither Hamas nor Iran see much role for Hamas in an Iran-led empire. Think “second class citizen” at best.
