Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Iran Blinked

At nearly the last moment Trump postponed for two weeks the destruction of Iran's infrastructure - power generation and desalination plants. The deal trades two weeks of ceasefire by all parties for two weeks of unhampered open sailing through the Strait of Hormuz

Negotiations toward a permanent settlement will continue during that fortnight. What remains unclear is whether Iran's government has retained enough control over its various decentralized units to command they cease firing and be obeyed

Iran has established a pattern of not living up to agreements they make. We will soon learn whether the recent punishment has ended that tendency.

It is my judgment that Trump's talk of destroying their civilization, and our demonstrated ability to do exactly that, may have gotten the leadership's attention. Perhaps martyrdom is not universally sought by Iranians after all.

Later … I’ll admit to being disappointed that Trump didn’t destroy Iran’s power generation and desalination plants. I remember the embassy staff being held hostage and all the other horrid stuff they and their proxies have done. Stuff that hasn't been properly avenged.