Mobilized for war as it now is, Russia is more formidable than the disorganized collective militaries of NATO’s member states. On the other hand, Russia is bogged down in a war with Ukraine that it cannot win, and seemingly cannot walk away from.
As long as Russia is tied down in Ukraine, it is unlikely it will overtly attack any NATO country. So-called “gray area warfare” is another matter, that Russia will continue to wage.
One supposes Putin hopes Ukraine will tire of the fight and accept a disadvantageous ceasefire. Similarly, Zelenskyy hopes Russia will recognize the no-win, continuing slog of their invasion and demand Putin stop. As is often noted, “hope” is not a strategy.
The stalemate in Ukraine pins the Russian bear in a cage match with the Ukrainian tiger. You’d have to say both sides are losing if it were not also true that both are honing their use of drones which bid fair to dominate this century’s battlefields. Already both are selling their hard-won expertise to third parties.
It is to NATO’s advantage to keep Ukraine in the fight with Russia, via support of arms and munitions. Expensive as that support is, it is cheaper than being prepared to fight Russia mano a mano.
