Bolivia Watch

This article from the Associated Press indicates Peace Corps volunteers have been pulled from Bolivia. A key comment is this one by the Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Thomas Shannon:

The Bolivians on at least two occasions that I'm aware of said that they thought the Peace Corps was part of a larger intelligence network that they thought we had constructed in Bolivia.

Friends, I spent a lifetime dealing with young Americans of Peace Corps age. A less likely group of 'spies' would be hard to imagine. This level of paranoia on the part of the Morales government is another sign of deterioration.

Quote of the Day

University of Arkansas political scientist Bob Maranto, quoted in a column by Salena Zito in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

Obama knows that if you try to impose things like racial quotas and gay marriage, that would not be a vote-winner. But if you appoint federal judges who impose those policies, you can evade responsibility.

Reading the Tea Leaves in London

Two days ago in this column we noted the increased likelihood of Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities during the two month period between election and inauguration. Here is an article by David Owen, former British Foreign Secretary, in the Sunday Times of London which raises this same issue and ties it only very indirectly to the results of our November election.

The Effect of Race on the Race

English is a funny language; I'll bet people trying to learn it are driven wild by the use of exactly the same four letters in the same sequence meaning two entirely different, if not opposed, things. This post isn't about language, but after writing that headline, I had to do a brief sidebar about it.

The post is to draw your attention to a thoughtful article by Bill Whitaker of CBS News. He does a factual article about the possible impact of race on the presidential election. That is, about the impact of the literally African-American ancestry of Barack Obama in a contest that heretofore has always been between between two white males, at least at the major party level. The issue of whether the "Bradley effect" is still operational twenty years later is discussed. The article is sort of "inside baseball," of greatest interest to those of us who follow politics as a spectator sport.

Early Snow in the Rockies

This article in the Idaho Statesman is headlined:

Boise gets earliest snow on record

and it goes on to report that in records going back 110 years to 1898, this is the earliest measurable snowfall in Boise. I'd add that snow is also predicted over the next several days at our place in western Wyoming.

Please remind me why I should believe the world is getting warmer and it is a crisis about which I should be terrified. I'd find claims of global warming more credible if there were more supporting evidence and less evidence to the contrary.

Scenario Spinning

Senator Obama is viewed by Israelis as having less commitment to their security than do either President Bush or Senator McCain. The accuracy of this perception is not particularly relevant, note merely that the Palestinians believe it too. In emotional issues like national security, perception often trumps reality.

If Obama is elected our next President in early November, the two month period between the election and Inauguration Day in January, 2009, features a greatly increased likelihood of Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The logical time for Israel to attack Iran's nukes is before Obama occupies the White House; while Israel can still count on at least tacit support for such raids.

On the other hand, if McCain is elected Israel will feel less pressure to act immediately against Iran. I believe the consensus will be that they have more time to assess the situation and weigh their options. In this sense, a win by Obama increases the temporal predictability of future events, if not the likelihood of their occurrence.

The October Surprise

John Hinderaker of Powerline has posted copies of 2 documents and quoted a third that show the socialist New Party considered Barack Hussein Obama one of their members in the 1990s. I suppose we shouldn't be surprised for someone who has been judged to have the most left-leaning voting record in the U.S. Senate.

You can view socialist ties as good or bad, that is up to your political orientation. COTTonLINE takes a dim view of socialism because (a) we believe it simply doesn't work and (b) it violates our concept of fairness.

Socialism doesn't work because it is based on a misunderstanding of human behavior. When working harder doesn't result in earning more, when folks don't get to keep a lot of what they earn, they don't work hard. Socialist societies are relatively unproductive. As a novelist once said, "socialism is not a way to share the wealth, it is a way to share the poverty."

Socialism violates our sense of fairness because it seeks to equalize outcomes. Clearly some people generate more wealth than others; our sense of fairness says they should end up with more wealth, in other words with unequal outcomes. That is capitalism, not socialism.

Non-partisan Political Humor Alert

NBC Tonight Show host Jay Leno, describing the format of last night's presidential debate:

Tonight's debate is called 'Townhall style.' Which means instead of ignoring the moderator's questions, the candidates can ignore the voters directly.

Source: as quoted in the ABC News political blog The Note.

Quote of the Day III

An anonymous poster on Lucianne.com's open thread running during the McCain-Obama debate:

Obama - the morality of Clinton and the naivete of Carter.

Man, oh, man, that is some kind of cold put-down.

Bolivia Revisited

COTTonLINE has been tracking unfolding events in Bolivia since at least early May of this year. A Christian Science Monitor article by Seth Kaplan brings us up to date on the current state of unrest in Bolivia. So far we've seen violent deaths, martial law, arrest of an elected governor, expulsion of a U.S. ambassador, and other signs of disturbance. Poor, sad Bolivia.

Quick Thought

Reason Number 723 for voting Republican:

Of the two major party tickets for president/vice president, only one, the Republican, contains NO LAWYERS.

Source: Bench Memos blog for National Review Online.

Quote of the Day II

Thomas Sowell, writes in RealClearPolitics of candidate Obama:

The country does not deserve to be put in the hands of a glib and cocky know-it-all, who has accomplished absolutely nothing beyond the advancement of his own career with rhetoric, and who has for years allied himself with a succession of people who have openly expressed their hatred of America.

It would be hard to call that racism; Dr. Sowell is himself an African-American. Hat tip to Mark Steyn for publicizing Sowell's views.

Quote of the Day I

Dan Spencer, reporting coverage by CNN for which video he has a link, says CNN characterizes the Obama-Ayers association:

CNN finally took a serious look at the long association between Obama and left-wing radical Weather Underground founder Bill Ayers. CNN concluded "the relationship between Obama and Ayers went much deeper, ran much longer, and was much more political than Obama said." (emphasis added)

CNN tends to lean left much of the time, which makes this finding even more credible. For a more detailed look at the Obama-Ayers relationship, see this article in The Cleveland Leader.

Primer on Financial Meltdown

Here it is, boys and girls, the lowdown on what caused the financial meltdown we are experiencing on Wall Street and to a lesser degree on Main Street. This Wall Street Journal article by Professor Russell Roberts lays it all out.

While not denying the existence of greed among financiers, he spells out the extent to which the crisis is the direct result of Federal policy, aimed at increasing home ownership among those whose ability to pay is questionable or worse. That governmental culpability is sizable. The most damning quote is the following:

For 1996, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) gave Fannie and Freddie an explicit target -- 42% of their mortgage financing had to go to borrowers with income below the median in their area. The target increased to 50% in 2000 and 52% in 2005.

For 1996, HUD required that 12% of all mortgage purchases by Fannie and Freddie be "special affordable" loans, typically to borrowers with income less than 60% of their area's median income. That number was increased to 20% in 2000 and 22% in 2005. The 2008 goal was to be 28%.

Between 2000 and 2005, Fannie and Freddie met those goals every year, funding hundreds of billions of dollars worth of loans, many of them subprime and adjustable-rate loans, and made to borrowers who bought houses with less than 10% down.

The median is the point above and below which equal numbers of people's incomes fall, think of it as the midpoint. So government required over a quarter of the loans to go to people whose income put them in approximately the bottom 30% of earners. These are borrowers whose financial applecart can be upset by a medical bill, a blown transmission, or a layoff. In short, people who absolutely should be renters, not owners. Then there is the Community Reinvestment Act:

The Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) did the same thing with traditional banks. It encouraged banks to serve two masters -- their bottom line and the so-called common good. First passed in 1977, the CRA was "strengthened" in 1995, causing an increase of 80% in the number of bank loans going to low- and moderate-income families.

Do yourself a favor and read the whole article. I share Professor Roberts' scorn for this "something for nothing" social engineering policy of the government.

Global What?

Go here to see a National Weather Service page noting that Fairbanks, Alaska, has experienced the coldest start to October in 16 years. Their headline:

...UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES AT FAIRBANKS...

Now, one more time, remind me about this global warming thing that is supposed to be setting us all asweat. It doesn't seem to perform "on demand." No wonder Sarah Palin is less-than-certain we humans are the primary cause of climate change.

Thoughts on the Bailout

I see articles and blog entries bemoaning the "death of capitalism" as a result of the bailout passed by Congress and signed by the President. I have one word for these: overreaction.

History Lesson: Capitalism needs regulation, and has gotten it here in the U.S. ever since Teddy Roosevelt became a trust buster. When there is regulatory failure, which is what we've just experienced, the government steps in and cleans up the mess. It did so in the savings and loan bailout, and is doing it again. Then it puts regulations in place to keep the problem from arising again. Everything rolls along smoothly for a decade or so and then the creative minds in the financial arena dream up new ways to legally circumvent regulations and get crazy. This is followed by another crisis and another government intervention. If anything else happened, that would be unusual and, possibly, worrying.

My Analysis: What we are experiencing is the absolutely normal functioning of the interplay of the free markets for capital and the regulatory functions of the government. Yes, it would be ugly if nothing were done, but you will note that isn't happening. What is happening is the classical pas a deux that the financial complex and the government perform - ponderously and with much groaning - every decade or two.

My Conclusion: The sky is not falling, the world is not coming to an end, capitalism is not dead, and the era of American hegemony is not over. We've experienced a normal, if unpleasant, event. Get over it. Life goes on.

Travel Blogging: Epilogue

The early Fall trip is over; we are in our winter quarters in CA. I thought I'd post some thoughts about the trip just ended.

First, airline travel is no longer fun. This isn't an original thought, but I am freshly reminded of its truth. The airlines blame us, others blame deregulation, I'm not sure where lies the fault. However it just seems to get worse and worse; mobs of tense, frustrated, uncomfortable passengers being herded from place to place in long lines, or waiting where there is inadequate seating. At least on international flights you still get fed, albeit poorly. Domestic flights are worse. Planes are flying full, seats are crammed together, both seat room and knee room are at a premium, and much of the equipment has been flying so long it is looking as tired as the flight attendants.

On a happier note, the DrsC find cruising a relaxing, low-stress way to travel. Ambiguity is low, amenities are high, and there are a variety of activities offered for one's amusement. The food is ample in quantity and variety, quality is somewhat less stellar although seldom terrible. We tend not to suffer from mal de mer so that isn't much of an issue. There is something magical about this huge luxury hotel cruising across the seas, all the while generating its own electricity, distilling its own drinking water, processing its own sewage, feeding a couple of thousand hungry tourists and another thousand plus crew, staging entertainment in multiple venues every day and night, running a casino, an art gallery, a variety of shops, a library, many bars, a gym, a spa, an Internet cafe, and a medical clinic. Like on an aircraft carrier, most of the jobs are being done by young people; relatively few make it a lifetime career.

An interesting contrast I experienced in Greece. Over the last decades Greece has experienced occasional episodes of anti-Americanism, sometimes violent episodes. No doubt some of it dates back to resentment of Harry Truman's aid to the anti-communist forces in Greece at the end of World War II. However, all of the Greek people I met or dealt with were very pleasant and helpful. One suspects the anger has been directed more at "official" American policies and personnel rather than at American tourists.

Bad News, Good News

You've heard all the bad news going around recently. How about some good news for a change? This Associated Press article reports that the number of illegal immigrants attempting to cross the Mexican border is down dramatically.

The article says it appears there are half a million fewer illegal immigrants in the U.S. than there were a year ago. In other words, more are going home than are coming here.

The weak economy and stepped up enforcement are suggested as causes. Whatever the causes, this is good news for the U.S., if not for Latin America.

Travel Blogging III

The ancient monuments of Athens are dramatic and spectacular, huge and wonderful. You have to wonder how Greeks three thousand years ago did all this with no power tools, no computers, and not a lot of what we think of as science. They were some impressive dudes.

The city of Athens, while old, doesn't have the same "other" feeling that you get in Istanbul and Alexandria. There is considerably more commitment to maintenance here, for example. This city feels European, those do not. Greek food is nice, too. I've heard that before and now I've experienced it.

Your humble scribe has come down with a cold and will be taking it easy until we fly out tomorrow. For a change, I will have a chance to infect everybody on the plane instead of being on the receiving end. Hack, cough, sniffle.

Athens is a 10 hours time difference from the West Coast of the U.S. Actually it is 10 hours later so I'm writing this at 4 p.m. and in CA it is 6 a.m. of the same day, namely Thursday. The other DrC has a theory that for every hour of time difference, it takes another day to get over jet lag. If she's right, it will take us 10 days to recuperate - that's dreary.

Travel Blogging II

Hello from Athens. We've just done the loop south from Istanbul to Alexandria, and back via Corfu to Athens. I guess many people are impressed with the Cyclades - Mykonos, Santorini - but we weren't especially. Talk about barren, the ground there is so barren you couldn't raise an umbrella on it. (rim shot) Crete, on the other hand, was nicer and had possibilities, we didn't see as much of it as we would have liked but the ruins of the palace at Knossos were impressive.

Alexandria is old, and apparently nobody there believes in maintenance, as everything is rundown. We were told the reason was government rent control. I'd almost buy that reason if it weren't for the fact that the government buildings were also rundown. Rent control isn't an issue for them, I believe.

On the other hand, driving along the coast west of town, there are literally scores of miles of 2 and 3 story condos which exist as shoreline summer places for the Egyptian middle classes (and above, of course). It is impressive that this supposedly poor country has that many middle class members - we must have seen many tens of thousands of units of beach condos. They stretched in an almost unbroken line along the shore from Alexandria west to El Alamein, some 66 miles west. That is a lot of beach condos. Being relatively new, these were in pretty good shape.

If we weren't impressed with Mykonos and Santorini, we were definitely impressed with Corfu - what a beautiful place that is. If I were a European, Corfu is where I'd want my vacation place. We also liked the country where the original Olympics were held, the port is Katakolon or some such. I'd heard Greece is poor and hardscrabble, the part near Katakolon certainly wasn't.

We go to see the Acropolis this afternoon, more later....