Note the Lukewarm Responses

I don't routinely have access to Washington Post copy which lives behind a paywall. Today I happened to pick up an issue of the Jackson Hole Daily, a free-for-the-taking advertiser with delusions of grandeur.

JHD reprints WaPo oped material in addition to local happenings. Hence I came across a WaPo opinion piece by Gary Abernathy which said some remarkably insightful things while reflecting on Cheney's loss on Tuesday.  

The jilted lovers of the GOP operate under the delusion that Republicans have just temporarily lost their way, and, once they realize their folly will find their way home. But while the GOP fell hard for Trump in 2016, its lukewarm response to John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 demonstrated that when it came to traditional suitors, the bloom was already off the rose.

Instead of constantly reproaching Republicans for their choices, everyone should stipulate the following: The Republican Party has some lingering conservative leanings, but it is now the populist, Make America Great Again party of its modern leader, Donald Trump.

Even if someone else is its standard-bearer in 2024 - which would be a wise move, considering Trump's self-inflicted wounds after his election defeat - the GOP will not revert to the party of the past. Establishment Republicans who care to remain even modestly influential can pick up an oar and help row. Or, they can jump ship. Lectures and recriminations are futile.

Meaning whatever Cheney does will be futile, a view I share. Abernathy finishes up the column by strongly inferring that Trump is no sleazier than the other leading figures of both major parties. Mark Twain called them our "distinctly native criminal class."

Giorgia Meloni and Italy

Politicians usually say what they believe people want to hear, and Giorgia Meloni is a politician. She is also likely to be the next prime minister of Italy. And those who don't like and/or fear her say she is a fascist.

On the other hand, if you believe Meloni is sincere in what she tells British interviewer Nicholas Farrell, she could become an important European leader as well as a single mother with a 5 year old daughter. Farrell wrote a Mussolini biography, an experience which gives him more understanding of fascism than of single motherhood.

If I assume Meloni told Farrell what she truly believes, I think her head is in a good place. If I assume she is disguising her intentions, then I think her head is in the right place, where "right" is defined as crypto-fascist.

Wishing Italy well, I choose to believe she is honest in her protestations of non-fascistic nationalism and anti-communism. If a Brit, she says she'd be a Tory; I'd guess if she were American she would be MAGA. It will be interesting to follow her career arc.

A Political Eulogy

Writing for New York Magazine as echoed by msn.com, Ed Kilgore unhappily pens some accurate observations about the Republican Party revealed by Cheney's loss yesterday, along with much that is just Democrat horsefeathers. Minus the feathers, some real truth:

It’s reasonably clear that anti-Trump Republicanism died its final noisy death with her defenestration from the House GOP leadership and then her ignominious defeat back home.(snip) Her abject defeat back home is a pretty clear sign that anti-Trump Republicanism has no future.

The ancien régime of conservative Republicanism as we knew it not so very long ago expired with Liz Cheney’s congressional career on August 16. Perhaps as Barack Obama once hoped, the “fever will break” after a couple of adverse general elections for the GOP. But for now, the Republican elephant is wearing a red hat and none dare question its stampeding direction and ear-shattering Trump-eting.

As I wrote on Monday,  the pre-populist GOP is no more. And honestly, it is not mourned by many.

The Spoiler Option

Rep. Liz Cheney yesterday lost the Republican nomination to run for reelection to WY's at-large House seat. This was not unexpected, perhaps not even unwelcome. 

In her concession speech she announced she will continue to work to keep Trump from ever regaining the presidency. I've asked myself how she might do this, given she didn't spend even half of her campaign war chest and has plenty left for the next step.

One path would be to put attorneys to work now determining what she would have to do in each state to get on the 2024 presidential ballot as an independent or third party candidate. Then run for the 2024 Republican nomination which would give her a platform though she almost certainly would not win.

Following which, if Trump (or another she dislikes) is the GOP nominee, she runs as a third party candidate with the intention of syphoning off enough conservative votes to cause the nominee to lose to the Democrat rival, whoever that might be. 

Cheney was able to get 20% of the Republican votes in Wyoming, perhaps she could do nearly as well elsewhere which would keep the Republican nominee from winning. This is how Ross Perot handed the presidency to Bill Clinton by winning many votes that would otherwise have gone to reelect incumbent George H. W. Bush.

I conclude Liz Cheney has no realistic path to the presidency. She does have the possibility of doing a kamikaze and causing a Republican to lose to a Democrat. Last night she sounded like she could do exactly that. At best it would make her a historical footnote, much as Perot is. 

I hope with time she'll decide not to become a political suicide bomber. It's a harsh thing to do to a country that more often than not has treated her well.

Later ... Rich Lowry writes for Politico that he believes it possible her running would split the anti-Trump vote. I don't buy it. Do you believe Democrats with their own anti-Trump candidate would vote for Cheney running as an independent or third party candidate? 

Who might vote for her is anti-Trump conservatives who can't stomach voting for whatever leftie the Ds nominate but might hold their noses and vote R, especially if that R isn't Trump.

WY Repudiates Liz Cheney

Wyoming's brief moment in the sun is over. RealClearPolitics reports Harriet Hageman has defeated Liz Cheney for the GOP nomination for our at-large House seat. Barring unforeseen revelations, Hageman should be a shoo-in winner in November.

With 99% of the vote counted, Hageman got 105,846 votes to Cheney's 45,493. Hageman got 65.7% of the votes cast, Cheney got 29.5%, and miscellaneous candidates split the remaining 5%.

This outcome was totally expected. Following the thorough repudiation by WY, if Cheney runs for something else she will do so as a resident of the northern Virginia suburbs where she actually lives. 

At some point I hope to read whether, as I expect, the turnout for a WY midterm primary broke records. One hundred fifty thousand GOP votes cast in a state with a total cradle-to-grave population of just over half a million is darn good.

Image courtesy of the Daily Mail (U.K.)

Dangerous Wisdom

Instapundit Glenn Reynolds writes something about VP Kamala Harris most would be afraid to write in today's environment. You decide if, in addition to being correct, Reynolds is brave, stupid, or perhaps both.

As with Obama, her blackness caused people to overlook her terribleness until it was too late.

Might it have been seen by Team Biden as a feature instead of a flaw? 

Friedman: Strategic Depth

COTTonLINE's favorite foreign affairs analyst is George Friedman. He writes at Geopolitical Futures about our Cold War-ish struggles over who has "strategic depth," these now ongoing with both Russia and China. 

Friedman compares and contrasts the two and looks at likely outcomes. His reasoning is too complex and multifaceted to summarize here. If these issues interest you, his column will repay your time to read it.

National Implications

Hello, fellow conservatives.  I can't tell you the results of the Wyoming primary election yet, the polls don't close until early this evening. 

What I can tell you is that, if my polling place was any indication, we could be on track to have a record primary voter turnout. The other DrC and I stood in line for a half hour to get our ballots and vote. The parking lot was almost full.

We've cast midterm primary ballots in person here for several cycles and never have we seen anything like the crowd we saw today. Having a primary race with national implications - as we do this year - likely is making the difference.

I am even more certain than I was yesterday that Liz Cheney will fail to win the GOP nomination for our one-and-only at-large House seat.

Getting What Was Asked For

It is widely reported that, one year after the U.S. left Afghanistan, things are hard there. Poverty is widespread and women’s rights are effectively nonexistent. 

We are asked to feel sorry for the Afghans. What I have not heard is why we should feel anything beyond schadenfreude. 

They didn’t want what we offered enough to help us keep it there. Instead they wanted their independence. Well, they’ve got it. I wish them the enjoyment thereof, as they figure out how to do what we call “pull up their socks.” 

I’m reminded of an interaction I had with a group of executives in an organization for which I was consulting, decades ago. They asked me to define my expertise and I replied “organizational psychologist.” 

Their background was biological sciences and, hearing the word “psychologist,” presumed incorrectly I was a therapist. So they asked how I’d respond if an organizational member should report feeling anxious or troubled. 

Organizational psychologists don’t do therapy so I replied “Cope, dammit, the rest of us have to.” My response became semi-legendary in the organization. And that’s what I tell the Afghans, it’s your country to run, make it work, cope.

Ancien Régime's Last Gasp

Lucianne.com links to a Houston Chronicle article about Texas donors contributing to the primary campaign of Wyoming's one and only House member - Liz Cheney. In deep red Wyoming only the GOP primary counts for much and RINO Cheney is in deep trouble; she will probably lose to Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman. 

As U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney fights for her congressional career in Wyoming on Tuesday, Texas donors including George W. Bush and Karl Rove are trying to come to her aid. The two-term congresswoman and one of former President Donald Trump’s biggest critics within the GOP has raised nearly $1 million from Texas donors—far more than she’s raised from Wyoming residents or from any other state except California, where she has raised $1.4 million.

Rove and Bush along with the Cheneys are avatars of the pre-populist GOP. At this late date, it only exists in the minds of its former practitioners. 

The rest of us have moved on to a set of priorities exemplified by Trump's 2016 platform. Whether we'd like to vote for Trump again or would prefer a younger candidate with less baggage, most of the party regards the Bush-Rove-Cheney group and their corporatist policies as "passé."

Drop the T?

Today the Instapundit blog has links to two different articles questioning whether those described by LGB really have to support the T or transexual group. I get the sense both were written by people attracted to same sex partners.

At PJ Media Matt Margolis writes that T is giving LGB an undeserved bad name, Stephen Green provides the link. Then Ed Driscoll links to a similar story in Not the Bee by Peter Heck. Both articles express the sense that supporting and defending groomers is the proverbial "bridge too far" or as one commenter noted, T looks like the slippery slope we promised you we didn't represent.

It will be interesting to see if this counter-movement "has legs" or dies out. It is identified as "LGBdroptheT." 

Arctic Sea Ice at 12 Year High

Lucianne.com links to a Watts Up With That article reporting that in the high Arctic, near the end of the region's all-too-brief summer, the remaining sea ice is at a 12 year high. The article's title: "Doomsday Climate Predictions Meltdown." 

Extreme weather happens, it always has. The Dust Bowl was ugly weather that lasted a few years. 

Climate, on the other hand, does change but quite slowly and for reasons only partially understood. The various Ice Ages which lasted centuries were climate changes. To investigate climate change, begin with minor variations in the output of the sun and major volcanic activity on earth.

Signs of Presidential Ambition

Did somebody give CA Gov. Newsom a reality injection? Earlier today I noted he now favors nuclear power for CA. A few hours later, CBS News reports he also favors increasing the state's water supply. 

After starting out as a clone of Jerry Brown, he could conceivably end up as a clone of Jerry's father - the last great CA governor, Edmund G. "Pat" Brown. The senior Brown was a "macher" who, during his two terms from 1959 to 1967, built infrastructure on which CA still relies.

Enough history, it appears Newsom wants to do four things to increase the Golden State's water supply, at least three of which make great sense.

The four main goals outlined are to create storage for four million acre-feet of storm water, recycle and reuse 800,000 acre-feet of wastewater per year by 2030, employ more efficient water conservation techniques to free up 500,000 acre-feet of water, and desalinate more sea water.

In my opinion, the main thing CA desperately needs to do is to stop letting large amounts of rainfall and snowmelt run off into the Pacific Ocean. Yes, it will interfere with the lifecycle of certain fish and leave the Bay semi stagnant. While he's building storage, he should install hydroelectric generation and get double use out of each new reservoir.

As noted this morning, his backers in the environmental movement are not happy. They prioritize fish, fowl, and furry things over people and ideally would want Californians to live like Ishi, scrounging for acorns in a loincloth. 

CA has already held its primary, so it is too late for the Sierra Club to run a tree-hugger against Newsom. He's as good as reelected. 

It appears Newsom has decided on a 2024 presidential run and needs to get CA on a sound footing to have a record on which to run for president. That could work out very well indeed for the state which exists normally in a semi-drought and was getting somewhat low on electricity.

I may no longer live there, but as a native son I still support realistic policies for California. These two moves by Newsom represent steps in the right direction.

A Matter of Probabilities

Two of the three principals at Power Line live in the Twin Cities ares of Minnesota. They report data from the MN Bureau of Criminal Apprehension concerning the most recent figures for violent crime in their state. 

In particular, given the recent unrest there over the George Floyd death in police custody, they focus on racial disparities in murders in that state.

The racial characteristic of murder in Minnesota is very similar to 2020. Of known victims, 123 were African American, or 65 percent of the total. Of known perpetrators (a single murder could have more than one), 209 (76 percent) were African American. Compare these figures to the share of African Americans in Minnesota’s population, which is less than 10 percent.

These figures are far from atypical. How is it unreasonable for law enforcement officers to pay more attention to African Americans, who are 6-7 times more likely to be murderers or murder victims, than to similarly situated white persons? Or to concentrate enforcement personnel in areas where many African Americans congregate? 

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As a white teenager police paid more attention to me than to older people. Then I aged out of adolescence and I became invisible to police. I understood it happened because teen boys are more likely to break the law but that didn't mean I was okay with it.

In the same way you find doctors and nurses in close proximity to sick people, you are likely to find LEOs in close proximity to African Americans. It is the job of law enforcement to be where crime happens and, like it or not, the police have hard data about where crime occurs. 

Sadly, law-abiding African Americans will feel picked on by police. In truth they will unavoidably receive more LEO attention than a similarly law-abiding white or Asian person. Sen. Tim Scott has written feelingly about this experience.

The Regime

Writing at American Greatness, Roger Kimball muses about the Mar-A-Lago raid and how it has boosted Trump’s chances of reelection. He first quotes at some length from the New York Times’ David Brooks:

There is an interlocking network of highly educated Americans who make up what the Trumpians have come to call the Regime: Washington power players, liberal media, big foundations, elite universities, woke corporations. These people are corrupt, condescending and immoral and are looking out only for themselves. They are out to get Trump because Trump is the person who stands up to them. They are not only out to get Trump; they are out to get you.

Of course Brooks doesn’t accept that narrative but Kimball, who does, comments sarcastically:

I know that story. I tell it often myself. And I appreciate its formulation by David Brooks. I wouldn’t change a syllable.

Brooks does a fair job of describing the enemy as perceived by Trump supporters. As someone who lived among and labored for a branch of the Regime - I know what Brooks calls the “Trumpian” view has some considerable accuracy.

Giving Nukes a Second Look

Reuters has a story which, for both personal and perverse reasons, I enjoy. If we aren't going to burn carbon-based fuels to generate electric power, the only non-intermittent alternatives are nuclear and hydroelectric.

California has long relied in part on a large nuclear plant on the coast south of San Luis Obispo at Diablo Canyon, built and run by Pacific Gas and Electric. In addition, PG&E also has substantial hydroelectric generation, the effectiveness of which the current CA drought tends to reduce.

California's Democrats, long in thrall to Sierra Club tree huggers, have wanted to shut down all the nukes, which produce no atmospheric pollutants but are still anathema to greens. Diablo Canyon has been scheduled to close in 2025. One of our junior faculty left academia to be a training officer for the Diablo Canyon plant, he'd be retired by now.

Running out of electricity for air conditioning in sunny CA is very unpopular with voters. So Gov. "Gruesome" Newsom has proposed a special state grant to keep the Diablo Canyon nuke running for another 10 years. The Sierra Club and WWF lobbies must be livid.

Motive Crystal Clear

Salman Rushdie, author of The Satanic Verses, has had a fatwa or Islamic religious decree calling for his death hanging over his head for perhaps 30 years. This morning in upstate NY he was repeatedly stabbed onstage and remains in hospital in serious condition.

His attacker was apprehended and is in custody, a young man named Hadi Matar from New Jersey. Unbelievably the mainstream media have been silent about Matar, and claim no motive has been determined. 

On the other hand, Steve Hayward of Power Line posts a Tweet by Andy Ngo of BLM reporting fame, which makes the following claim.

Suspect Hadi Matar had multiple posts in support of Iran and Shia Islam on Facebook.

In addition to which the Daily Mail (U.K.) reports the leadership of Iran is celebrating the attack and the attacker.

Untouchables

Funnier if it was an exaggeration.

Image courtesy of Aug. 13, 2022 Lucianne.com.

Last Minute Data

The Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center at the U. of Wyoming just released a survey of WY residents and those who self-identify as Likely Voters. WY is my state-of-residence and the primary is Tuesday, August 16, so I'm interested. 

A couple of findings that may be of interest beyond our state's capacious boundaries. Our Representative at large, Liz Cheney, trails Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman among likely voters in the GOP primary by 27.8% to 57.4%. The final outcome shouldn't be in any doubt.

The other finding tends to contradict the stereotypical view of Republicans as non-college grads. This poll found that, among Wyoming's likely GOP primary voters, 46.4% have either a baccalaureate degree (24.8%) or a graduate or professional degree (21.6%). 

According to Forbes, 32.1% of the U.S. population has at least a baccalaureate degree. Thus, GOP primary voters in WY are more educated than the average American. This finding doesn't surprise me but it might surprise the national punditry. 

DeSantis Reads Heinlein?

Breitbart reports Ron DeSantis is putting forward a program to help veterans of the armed forces become public school teachers in Florida.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Thursday announced a program to help U.S. veterans to become teachers in the Sunshine State, explaining that it is fitting to have those “who took an oath and put his or her life on the line to preserve, protect, and defend our flag and the freedom it represents” to teach the next generation.

This may be a way to recruit the non-woke into teaching. I wonder if DeSantis has read Robert Heinlein's science fiction novel Starship Troopers. Heinlein explored similar ideas nearly 70 years ago. The 1997 Hollywood film made from the book omits Heinlein's conservative ideas - no surprise.

Afterthought: DeSantis isn't just reactive; in the culture wars he appears to be on offense.