Sunday, August 14, 2022

A Matter of Probabilities

Two of the three principals at Power Line live in the Twin Cities ares of Minnesota. They report data from the MN Bureau of Criminal Apprehension concerning the most recent figures for violent crime in their state. 

In particular, given the recent unrest there over the George Floyd death in police custody, they focus on racial disparities in murders in that state.

The racial characteristic of murder in Minnesota is very similar to 2020. Of known victims, 123 were African American, or 65 percent of the total. Of known perpetrators (a single murder could have more than one), 209 (76 percent) were African American. Compare these figures to the share of African Americans in Minnesota’s population, which is less than 10 percent.

These figures are far from atypical. How is it unreasonable for law enforcement officers to pay more attention to African Americans, who are 6-7 times more likely to be murderers or murder victims, than to similarly situated white persons? Or to concentrate enforcement personnel in areas where many African Americans congregate? 

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As a white teenager police paid more attention to me than to older people. Then I aged out of adolescence and I became invisible to police. I understood it happened because teen boys are more likely to break the law but that didn't mean I was okay with it.

In the same way you find doctors and nurses in close proximity to sick people, you are likely to find LEOs in close proximity to African Americans. It is the job of law enforcement to be where crime happens and, like it or not, the police have hard data about where crime occurs. 

Sadly, law-abiding African Americans will feel picked on by police. In truth they will unavoidably receive more LEO attention than a similarly law-abiding white or Asian person. Sen. Tim Scott has written feelingly about this experience.