Friday, August 19, 2022

An Afghanistan Retrospective

It is roughly the one year anniversary of our ignominious retreat from Afghanistan, and a number of pundits have written a retrospective. Today I make reference to the retrospective done by the Washington Post's David Ignatius. He writes:

What's still agonizing, though, is the decision-making process, in which different parts of the administration pursued what amounted to contradictory policies. The Pentagon wanted to get out as fast as possible once President Biden decided in April, 2021 to withdraw. But the State Department sought to maintain its embassy and diplomatic presence in Kabul.

No one ever forced a reconciliation. As a result, State pressed ahead with a mission for which it didn't have adequate time or resources. The military, which had opposed Biden's withdrawal decision, opted to protect its troops. "Speed is safety" was the Pentagon mantra, while at State it was more like "stay the course."

In other words, President Biden, to whom both Pentagon and State report, should have forced them to be on the same page. He failed to do so. Hence the withdrawal became a Biden disaster. 

If we've learned any lesson from the messes that were the Vietnam and Afghan wars, it is that we Americans are hopeless when it comes to nation-building. It probably stems from our desire to transform third world people into copies of us, instead of working with whatever ugly-by-our-standards systems the region tends to favor. 

We don't like warlords, don't like military regimes or theocrats, and want to install democracy in places where it has no history and little cultural support. Have we failed often enough to learn our lesson? I'm not convinced we have.

What I believe  If we must go into a trouble spot to punish locals who've attacked us or harbored those who did, our military can execute that plan. Kill the openly defiant, demolish the facilities used in our harm, and make clear to the locals that, should they make it necessary for us to return, we will come back heavy. When that message has been made clear, leave and let the locals sort out the mess we've left and govern themselves however they choose.

We have to stop following the Pottery Barn rule that if we break it we are responsible. If we find this approach morally unacceptable, then we'd better get accustomed to turning the other cheek when a 9/11 occurs. Because it is clear what we've been doing doesn't work.

The alternative is maintaining permanent garrisons in places we've more or less pacified, as we do in Germany, Japan, and South Korea. There are obvious economic limits to that approach.