An Empty Threat

About the Speaker impasse detailed in the previous post, Steven Hayward of Power Line has a comment that may be relevant.

The impasse over selecting the next Speaker of the House will end very soon for a simple reason: since no members can be officially sworn in until there is a Speaker, it means none of them can draw a paycheck. That will tend to concentrate the mind of many House members.

I doubt he’s correct. A paycheck delayed a few days shouldn’t mean much to these guys, gals and whatevers, They mostly manage to get rich while in office and they don’t do it from their federal paychecks. 

The twenty or so holdouts are ideologues of one stripe or another. That motive tends to make mundane matters like paying the rent pale into insignificance.

Plus, long term nobody will actually lose any money. Like federal employees during a so-called “government shutdown” they’ll eventually get every penny even if it is delayed a week or two.

The Speaker Deadlock

The current tempest in the Washington teapot is the apparent inability of the slender Republican majority in the House of Representatives to elect a Speaker to replace Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is the front runner but he has fallen short of the 218 votes needed to win the post. 

Some 20 GOP House members have consistently, over six different ballots so far, voted for someone else. Meanwhile slightly over 200 voted for McCarthy. Neither number seems to budge, and we are treated to the inelegant spectacle of the party’s tail wagging the dog. 

Digging deeper, at least 80 House Republicans are viewed as McCarthy loyalists, who will vote for no other so long as he continues to allow his name to be put forward. He appears to believe he will eventually wear the opponents down, and shows no sign of withdrawing from the ballot. 

As others have noted, a Republican majority in the House can do little except block legislation when the Senate and Presidency are held by the other party. Thus, we have the situation similar to that belittled by Henry Kissinger in his description of academic politics, which he described as vicious “because the stakes are so low.”

You could argue this deadlock occurs because House Republicans really have no important work to accomplish beyond voting “no” on whatever the Democrat-controlled Senate passes. Since nothing much important is at stake, why not pummel the party leader the 20 hardliners believe is an insufficiently militant pushover?

Gallup: Americans Are Pessimistic

The Gallup survey organization asked a representative panel of Americans for their predictions for the coming year - 2023. Unsurprisingly, on 12 of 13 dimensions, majorities believe things will get worse.

In the area of economic outcomes, taxes, prosperity, federal deficits, stock markets, price levels, and employment levels are all expected to become worse. That is, taxes, deficits, and prices are all seen as going higher. While prosperity, stock markets, and employment are all expected to be lower.

In political/societal affairs, political conflict, crime rates, and labor strikes are all expected to grow. And in international affairs, conflict is expected to grow as is China’s power while the power of both America and Russia is expected to decline.

Gallup concludes that only for this last item, an expected decline of Russia’s power and influence, are predictions positive for our country’s interests. As the year 2023 begins, we Americans have an almost entirely gloomy outlook. Don’t be surprised if that prophesy becomes self-fulfilling.

Data on the Big Sort

Steven Hayward, posting at Power Line, has lists of states gaining and losing population in the last fiscal year. As you might imagine Democrat-run blue states are losers and Republican-run red states are gainers. The data are confounded to some extent because they reflect absolute numbers and obviously tend to be dominated by large states.

Therefore Steve’s PL colleague John Hinderaker, who in retirement heads a think tank, had a statistician rank states by per capita loss or gain which produces a somewhat different list, also shown. It is difficult to argue with the results of Americans “voting with their feet,” moving where government policies are more to their liking. And of course, the growth in working from home gives such moves a boost.

Remembering ….

This morning I am remembering living through the great blizzard of 1969 in Eugene, Oregon. Not sure exactly why now, maybe because it happened in January.

Over a weekend in late January 37+ inches of snow fell on a city that normally doesn’t get that much snow in a decade. The city had no snow removal equipment but did what they could with a couple of front-end loaders. 

Everything basically ground to a halt for several days; the university shut down and we all hunkered in place. I remember hearing that people who needed to go to the hospital were transported by snowmobile. My housemates and I lived a couple of blocks from a market and we got groceries on foot. 

Later in the week when I tried to drive my VW beetle - typical grad student wheels at the time - it got high centered on a ridge of hard snow/ice. I needed a tow by a very exasperated guy with a 4wd pickup to get unstuck.

Good News x 2

A new year is beginning, and at least some prognosticators (see prior post) are making very tough, downbeat predictions. On the other hand, as Joe Hoft at Gateway Pundit writes, at the very least we begin the year with two pieces of very good news.

As of today, Nancy Pelosi is no longer Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Liz Cheney no longer represents Wyoming (or any other constituency) in that chamber. Maybe it’s all downhill from here, maybe not. At least two good things have already happened.

The only prediction I will make for 2023 is that what comes will be worth following with interest. Rereading the previous sentence, I am reminded of an old curse alleged to be of Chinese origin, “May you live in interesting times.” We do.

A Lot Like Hell

And the prize for the most pessimistic set of predictions for 2023 goes to … wait for it … Theodore Roosevelt Malloch writing at American Greatness. There is a tendency to think the AG venue is “owned” by Trump supporters. However, check out his political prediction.

The presidential primaries on both sides are going to be a blood fest. Biden will run based on his fake bio and he will have a half-dozen challengers, all trying to unseat him, as senile and inept. In the end, he will fold, and the Cackler, Kamala Harris, will be crowned queen as a happy compromise. Obama backs her, remember?

On the Republican side, Trump is fading faster than Santa after Christmas. The base may still, wink, wink, “support” him. But they have had enough, NFT trading cards and all. There are probably just short of a dozen challengers gearing up to take him on this year—some of whom were his lieutenants. Ron DeSantis will win the primaries and be the Republican nominee in 2024.

You get the real downer flavor of  Malloch’s predictions with this concluding thought:

Unfortunately, I don’t see any Great Awakening in 2023, even if it is sorely needed. 2023 will be a lot like Hell or one of the lower levels on Dante’s ladder.

I plan to retreat from the worst of 2023 as I avoid big cities and the craziness of the rat race. Hat tip to Power Line for the link. 

About Ukraine

RealClearDefense has an analysis by Seth Cropsey of the motives and goals of both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war. It is one of the best I have seen, perhaps a “must read.”

Cropsey describes Russian aims in a way that explains why Putin acted as he did, and why he is unlikely to quit anytime soon. Ditto for those of Ukraine, which is also unlikely to quit. He believes the weak actors in the conflict are Germany, France, and possibly the U.S.

His conclusion is that Crimea is the real prize that both sides desperately need. He argues NATO needs to provide the arms necessary for Ukraine to meaningfully threaten to retake Crimea, if not to actually do so. And he describes why a Russia that includes what is now Ukraine becomes a global power center of nearly equal weight to China and the U.S., something it is worth our while to prevent.

A Velvet Divorce?

Instapundit links to a report at the Legal Insurrection website concerning the progress made by the conservatives in eastern and southern Oregon who wish to secede from liberal OR and become part of conservative Idaho. So far 11 counties have voted to make the move, and a twelfth has scheduled a vote on it. 

Normally such efforts are stymied by the opposition of a state’s majorities. That may not happen in this case, for an interesting reason. As you read the following, be aware that “northwestern Oregon” is where most of the state’s Democrat majority lives and the largest cities are located.

A January 2022 SurveyUSA poll showed that 68% of northwestern Oregon voters thought that the Oregon Legislature should hold hearings on the idea, and only 20% opposed.

The poll also found that a mere three percent of such voters think keeping eastern and southern Oregon in the state is worth the cost. The movement estimates the cost at $500 per northwestern Oregonian wage earner annually.

If the secession movement should succeed - a remote possibility at this juncture - I can imagine eastern Washington wishing to follow suit. If that should succeed as well, the resulting “super Idaho” would be a very large state. What’s unclear is whether Idaho wants to pick up the costs OR would shed.

Happy New Year

While I’ve got the blogger open on my lap, let me wish COTTonLINE readers a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year in 2023. We’re all a year older and that, for us past our prime, isn’t entirely a good thing. 

On the other hand, that we’re still here to grouse about aging means we’re survivors, which is very much a good thing. Let’s take a moment to remember, mostly with fondness, those who didn’t make it this far.

Carpe diem - seize the day. Heck, carpe annum - seize the year.

Federalism

There is something about this time of year that moves the commentariat to ponder weighty issues. The resulting columns sometimes make interesting reading.

John Hinderaker, the first among equals at Power Line, makes a prediction that federalism - the relation between the states and the national government - will be an issue much in the news going forward. The entire column is worth your time, his conclusion will give you a sense of where his thoughts lead.

There are strong reasons for the states to re-assert their sovereignty, and, given how poorly our national government is performing, that can only be a good thing. Perhaps the prospect of disunion will concentrate the minds of the political class in Washington. Or perhaps disunion will become a reality, maybe sooner than we can now imagine.

CA, where I am vacationing, appears all too ready to go its own peculiar way. I can’t imagine much of the mountain west (except CO) wanting to go along for that very woke ride.

Adios to 2022

We have reached the last day of 2022, and not a moment too soon. For those of us who follow politics this has been a bad year regardless of the party you call “home.”

Republicans had a disappointing midterm election result, while Democrats lost control of the House and will spend the next two years doing something other than legislating. The Biden administration has not covered themselves with glory, and both Biden and former President Trump have largely been embarrassments. 

Overseas some good things happened, through no “fault” of our diplomats. Russia continued to fail in their attempt to swallow Ukraine and China managed some world class “foot shooting” with the zero Covid policies. Both nations end the year in worse shape than they started it. On the other hand, our southern border continues to suffer from Biden’s malign neglect.

Militant political Islam has had no large victories this year, which is a plus. And Iran has been having anti-hijab riots.  NATO has shown more sticking power and cohesiveness than its history had led one to expect. 

Here and in other developed parts of the world there is some evidence that the “woke” movement is wearing out its welcome, but its attacks on conventional morality continue unabated.

To adapt a metaphor I like, we’ve seen a few robins, but Spring is still out of reach.

Hippies Growing Old

Yesterday the DrsC took a drive down the PCH (aka US 101) to Ventura, to do some shopping and to enjoy the coastal scenery. Growing up nearby, I spent a fair amount of time in Ventura as a young man. 

My while-in-college summer job was there, and it was mostly where we’d go to catch a film or a meal. In recent decades I’ve not much frequented the town, maybe a brief visit 1-2 times a year. 

It has changed of course - grown and the population mix is new. What I noticed yesterday while shopping in the early afternoon was a demographic I haven’t much associated with Ventura. Namely superannuated hippies. 

There were more old counterculture types than I’d ever seen there. Picture a lot of long, stringy gray hair on both genders, and matching beards on the guys. 

One slender old dear wore a floor length black gown with a spread eagle embroidered across the shoulders, showing rather too much flaccid cleavage. Think “Elvira, Mistress of the Dark” in her late 70s, with hair gone gray and no makeup. She and her guy, both all in black, looked like “Goths out to pasture.”

I saw a whole bunch of voters on which Gavin Newsom can certainly count, if they aren’t too high to focus. Parts of CA begin to resemble a foreign country; yesterday in Ventura brought home that reality.

Later … as if to prove my point, check out this piece of CA crazy.

Later still … this from The Babylon Bee, which advice is both snarky and largely accurate.

The Wrong Kind of Visibility

Instapundit republishes a tweet by something called “the Bradford File,” whatever or whoever that may be. The irony it contains is world class.

Pete Buttigieg is so awful at his job people actually 

know who the Sec. of Transportation is.

A common supposition is that Buttigieg is using his current job as a platform from which to once again run for president. How doing a crap job in one position qualifies you for another in the minds of voters remains unclear. 

Rethinking Mitch McConnell

Mostly Kurt Schlichter writes biting put-downs of the GOP’s enemies, and they’re funny the way the late Don Rickles was funny. Today he takes up a serious subject - the mixed bag that is Mitch McConnell.

Schlichter argues that Mitch was formerly, on balance, good for the Republican Party. I agree. He concludes that, for whatever reason, the good Mitch accomplishes no longer outweighs the not-good for which he’s responsible. Again, I agree. 

It is time for Mitch to retire; getting him to do so won’t be easy or pleasant. The column’s conclusion is classic Schlichter:

Mitch is too old, too unpopular, too angry, and increasingly too ineffective to be the senior Republican elected official. It’s time for the Murder Turtle to withdraw into his shell.

Dems Dead in Wyoming

You've seen me write about how very Republican Wyoming is today, how Democrats sometimes don’t run a candidate against the Republican for state office. Don’t take my word for it, see a discussion of the D’s lousy turnout in southwestern Wyoming.

Intriguingly, the “green” policies of the national Democrats aren’t terribly popular among WY union members whose livelihoods depend directly or indirectly on coal and oil extraction. Imagine that, how predictable.

The D party Poobah quoted as expecting WY Republicans to tear each other to shreds is dreaming. He needs to revisit the votes Liz Cheney didn’t get in last August’s Republican primary. 

If you added the few votes for Cheney to those for the state’s Democrats you aren’t close to a majority. In our state the GOPe is a toothless “tabby.”

Exodus Continues

The Wall Street Journal cites interesting statistics about the continuing wave of people moving from high-tax blue states to low-tax red states. Some examples:

California (343,230), New York (299,557) and Illinois (141,656) lost the most residents to other states, but New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Louisiana were also big losers.

Florida drew the most newcomers (318,855), followed by Texas (230,961), North Carolina (99,796), South Carolina (84,030), Tennessee (81,646), Georgia (81,406) and Arizona (70,984).

One new trend is the migration from the Pacific Northwest.

Both Oregon and Washington experienced net outmigration this past year, a reversal of earlier trends. Meanwhile, blue Colorado’s growth slowed appreciably.

In addition to taxation and climate, less business regulation is a factor drawing employers to the red states. To some extent the economic migration is “moving where the jobs are.”

Paradoxically, the movement to red states has made reelection easier for blue state politicians whose majorities become larger as Republican voters leave their states.

The Great Sort continues, with no end currently in sight.

Defenestration

It appears somebody or some group is killing off Russia’s oligarchs. The latest supposedly fell out of a window. The list of those who’ve died is relatively long, and the deaths mostly sound suspicious.

Those are deaths of the people with sufficient resources and clout to potentially challenge Putin, if the public mood should ever seem to make that feasible. A failure to succeed in Ukraine could be the trigger.

If you ask who had means, motive, and opportunity to terminate this entire group, you find the list is quite short. It turns out Russia isn’t a safe place to be visibly wealthy.

Karma

Instapundit links to a Breitbart article reporting data from the Financial Times (behind paywall). Breitbart writes:

The Dow Jones Media Titans index, which tracks the performance of 30 of the world’s biggest media companies, shed 40 percent this year, with its total market value declining from $1.35 trillion to $808 billion, according to a Financial Times report.

If you do the math, Hollywood lost a half trillion dollars in market capitalization. It is enough to give you a warm feeling; rich, ultra-woke media types taking a beating. It couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch.

Boxing Day

In the U.K. and many parts of its former empire, the day after Christmas is known as “Boxing Day.” Unrelated to pugilism, the name derives from boxing up left-overs from the Christmas feast to give to the servants, sharing the largesse.

Today it is primarily a day to pursue the after-Christmas sales as retailers attempt to move their leftover holiday merchandise by cutting prices. If that is your aim, I wish you fabulous bargains. 

In decades past we’ve bought the next year’s Christmas cards on this day - half price or less - as such cards are timeless. Lately, we’ve done custom cards via an Internet provider.