"Stalking" the Celebrity Bear

We did a scenic Sunday drive yesterday, hoping to see the "celebrity" grizzly bear with the unglamorous name of "399." She's mostly famous for successfully raising quadruplet cubs a couple of years ago, very unusual for the big bears. 

399 is also known for being old and canny - she's in her mid-twenties - but still healthy. She has one cub this year and still looks to be in good shape. The other DrC has photos at her blog.

I write "looks" because grizzlies don't have annual check-ups. They are North America's (quite dangerous) apex predator, south of the permafrost. The polar bears rule up north, and the two species occasionally interbreed producing hybrid cubs that survive.

The grizzly is "apex predator" if you don't count us humans. By some standards we are the true apex predator anywhere on this planet's land surface. 

Sadly, the celebrity bear didn't honor the "room" with her presence, at least while we were in her neighborhood which is the Pilgrim Creek area in GTNP between Jackson Lake Lodge and Colter Bay Village. Better luck next time.

Fun fact: Jackson Lake Lodge is where the Federal Reserve Bank system holds its annual summer meeting. The view from the Lodge's enormous lobby window is spectacular.

What we did see was a very snowy boutique mountain range, the Tetons. Pictured below is Mount Moran as seen from the Colter Bay region.

We Were Right

There is a reason voters aren’t buying Biden’s claim the economy is doing fine. See  two charts from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, posted by Power Line’s Scott Johnson, showing changes in household net worth.

Pay particular attention to the chart on the right showing “Adjusted for Inflation” data. It is clear our perceptions of doing less well are accurate.

About Migration

Writing at Discourse, David Masci looks at the migration from Democrat-dominated “blue” states to Republican-run “red” states and lays out why he believes it happens. A lot has been written about this migration but I believe you’ll like Masci’s calm, even tone.

What’s new about this analysis is his assertion that the red state model simply fits today’s economy better than the blue state model. The blue state model, he believes, harks back to the conditions prevalent in the mid-1900s, and he appears to be correct. Hat tip to RealClearPolicy for the link.

Breaking: Iran's President Presumed Dead

A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has crashed in heavy fog along the mountainous border with Azerbaijan. No survivors have been found at the site. 

The helicopter was returning Raisi to Tabriz after a visit to the border area, the BBC reports. Raisi was a favorite of the IRGC, his main rival in the succession to Supreme Leader Khamenei was Khamenei's son. In a country known for conspiracy theories, at least some will suspect a plot.

Not many in the west will mourn Raisi. He was a key figure in the arrest and execution of thousands of his fellow citizens, earning him the sobriquet "the Butcher of Tehran."

Paradise Paved

Fabulous quote about California from the satirical Babylon Bee.

"You guys were literally given everything! How do you even do that?" said a spokesangel for the Almighty. "You have perfect weather, beautiful coastline, great surfing, skiing in the mountains, fish tacos, rolling vineyards, the list goes on. How on earth did you manage to take the most beautiful stretch of land on God's earth and turn it into a huge dump? It doesn't make any sense.”

I share the angelic disbelief and disgust.

Latter-Day Valkyrie

Posting at Instapundit, regular Ed Driscoll looks at people comparing Taylor Swift to Hitler (really?), labeling her an icon of white supremacists who call her an Aryan goddess, and complaining her fans are “too white.”

I’ve seen plenty of photos of Swift performing and tried to listen to a couple of her songs on YouTube. I didn’t get what she was “selling” and gave up without ever hearing one through to the end.

I will say in photos Swift does have a distinct Valkyrie vibe. There’s nothing “sweet” appearing about that talented “young thing.” Her image is as steely as Charlize Theron playing mean queen - very intent, very focused.

Swift’s songs are said to deal almost entirely with the difficulties of the man-woman relationship today. Their popularity reflects widespread unease with current cultural trends and the resulting impediments to marriage in our society. 

The uproar over Harrison Butker’s commencement address is another manifestation of these concerns roiling our cultural waters.

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Deer in the Yard

A week ago our aspen forest was a zillion bare, white sticks. Today it is leafing out and, right on time, the deer have made an appearance. 

I suspect the deer come for the fresh, new leaves, but the fact the forest now provides cover that was absent a week ago could also be a factor. The other DrC has posted a photo she took today in our backyard, I've reproduced it below.

.

We've left the forest mostly as we found it so the deer are welcome to snack and hang out. We don't put out food for them, what grows naturally is what they are accustomed to. It won't hurt them, they don't hurt it.

The yard will be beautiful for the next five months, then it's back to white sticks, dead leaves, and snow for seven months. When that time rolls around, we head south.

Postscript: Did you know that all of the aspens in that forest above are all part of one gigantic organism? Yep, all the aspen trees in a forest are parts of one enormous plant, Wikipedia writes:

The largest organism in the world, according to mass, is the aspen tree whose colonies of clones can grow up to 8 kilometres (5 mi) long. The largest such colony is Pando, in the Fishlake National Forest in Utah.

Gender and Politics

Girl babies get pink clothes and toys, boy babies get the same in blue. But when they grow up it’s the boys whose politics trend Republican red, while the grown up girls trend Democratic blue.

Kay Hymowitz has written many interesting articles for City Journal, today’s example deals with the political divide between men and women. Men skew conservative, women skew liberal. In itself, that difference isn’t news, we’ve observed it in US politics as far back as the Reagan era.

What she reports that I didn’t know, and maybe you don’t either, is that this trend is prevalent across nearly all developed nations. She cites The Economist (U.K., behind paywall) which reports three trends.

First, it’s the women who’ve changed, they’ve moved leftwards. Second, the gap is several times wider than it was just four years ago. And third, the political gap leads to mistrust between men and women.

In addition to the gap in the US, examples are given of it in South Korea, China, Germany, and the U.K. And it has implications that go far beyond the ballot box.

That Gen Z is coming of age at a time of intense political polarization only further complicates the mating game. Fewer young people, particularly women and those identifying as Democrats, are willing to date someone who doesn’t share their politics. “No Republicans” warnings have become a common sight on dating apps; there are even apps explicitly designed to keep out undesirables from the other party. (links in original)

The gap she sees is certainly a factor in the declining percentages of young people getting married. And though she doesn’t cite it, married women tend to politically skew conservative.  

Perhaps only the shrinking group of women who are somewhat conservative are finding marriage partners. Do you suppose they could be the only subgroup of women who even seek marriage? Nah.

Peruvian Update

Gateway Pundit posts the following story, first appearing in The Telegraph (U.K., behind paywall). The conservative government of Peru has enacted interesting legislation.

A new decree, signed by President Dina Boluarte, has officially classified transsexualism, nonbinary, and intersex conditions as “mental illnesses.”

It further includes “dual-role transvestism, fetishist transvestism, egodystonic sexual orientation, and other gender identity disorders” in the same category. This groundbreaking decision by the Peruvian health ministry is seen by many as a bold affirmation of biological truths and a commitment to providing appropriate mental health care.

I can imagine this will cause heads to explode in some sectors of the US. Others will view it as entirely appropriate but, fearing accusations of harboring this or that unfashionable phobia, will likely keep those views to themselves. 

Ashley’s Diary

You may recollect there have been allegations President Joe Biden’s daughter Ashley claimed in her diary she showered with her father at an age when that was “probably not appropriate.” This stated in the context of her claiming she was “hyper-sexualized” at a young age.

Karen Townsend writing at Hot Air quotes fact-checking site Snopes as now believing the diary has been proven to be hers. Ashley is reported to have admitted the “stolen” diary is hers in a letter to a judge. 

Of course the family’s reputation for truthfulness is in tatters, so Ashley may have imagined the showering. Or she may have been encouraged to ‘remember’ it by a psychologist looking for clues. What seems beyond question is that she wrote it.

In this context it is relevant to remember female Secret Service agents assigned to protect Vice President Biden complained that, at home in Delaware, he swam naked, making them uncomfortable.

Some very strange families end up in high office in our fair land. I’d include at least the most recent three presidents in that group, there may be more.

Friedman Recants

COTTonLINE’s favorite commenter on foreign affairs - George Friedman - writes that there have been large demonstrations in Hungary focused on government corruption. What he finds interesting about these is that the Orban government did not repress them. I have the same feeling.

Conventional wisdom in the WEF-hugging portion of the commentariat is that Viktor Orban is an authoritarian, a near-dictator in fact if not officially. Friedman writes:

Authoritarians govern by power and fear, so any demonstration that could appear to confer weakness on the regime must be put down. In such a government, when demonstrations like this take place, the police try to crush them through direct action and mass arrests. Orban has made no such move. I doubt he is relaxed, but he has done everything possible to show citizens that they have the right to speak their minds en masse. He has taken the view that the issue will resolve itself.

Orban’s reluctance to use force is partly due to the nature of his government and partly due to his desire to show that the European Union has misrepresented him – and that, importantly, he is correct to keep Hungary at a comfortable distance from the institution.

Friedman notes that the demonstrations were against old-fashioned “corruption,” politicians enriching themselves at the public’s expense. What they explicitly were not against were Hungary’s socially conservative values that conflict with those of Brussels and the EU.

I conclude from Friedman’s report that Orban’s Hungary is nationalist, favoring what is widely believed to be best for Hungarians, particularly when it differs from what the EU (aka “the institution”) wants for Europe as a whole.

I would add that a couple of years ago when the DrsC were briefly in Hungary we saw no evidence of a police state. Budapest street life looked absolutely indistinguishable from other European cities.

Showing the GOP Flag

The most highly placed elected Republican is House Speaker Mike Johnson. Today he is in New York to support Donald Trump at Trump's "banana republic" trial in Manhattan. 

Politico makes fun of Johnson doing so, I view it differently. If you remember, Johnson also showed up at Columbia University during the protests there and spoke out against what was happening. 

In both cases the Speaker, second in succession to the presidency and therefore the most senior elected Republican official in the land, is showing the flag. He is going where things are not as they should be and  putting the GOP on record as opposing what is there being done.

As such, I believe his behavior is entirely on target. That doing so also strengthens his position as Speaker is, as Cajuns say in his native Louisiana, lagniappe - a bonus.

White Elephant Sighted in TX and MO

Yahoo Finance reports something stunning concerning commercial real estate, check it out.

Burnett Plaza, the tallest building in Fort Worth, Texas, has been purchased via foreclosure auction for $12.3 million just three years after it was sold for more than $137.5 million, according to the Dallas Business Journal.

As well as being the tallest in Fort Worth, Burnett Plaza is also considered the largest, with over one million square feet of commercial office and retail space, according to its website.

Built in 1983, sold for less than 10 cents on the dollar! Another casualty of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the work-from-home movement that now seems nearly irreversible. 

Also, the second tallest office tower in St. Louis, formerly the One AT&T Center, is considered a "blighted area."

In the latest sign of how lower demand is hitting parts of the U.S. office market, one of the tallest towers in St. Louis that sold for $205 million in 2006 has changed hands again this week — for about $3.6 million. (snip) On a per-square-foot basis, the tower’s value over 18 years dropped from about $140 to $2.50, according to CoStar data.

It may not be too radical to foresee urban downtowns becoming haunted high-rise slums. In hindsight, these stories may represent two of the tipping points. How long before empty buildings become squats for the unhoused, or for the Biden illegals? Hat tip to Stephen Green posting at Instapundit for the links.

Home State News

Instapundit posts Wyoming news concerning the state university. The legislature demanded the closure of the DEI office and UW is ‘complying’ reluctantly by renaming most of what the office did as “BIPOC opportunity” programs.

The good news is the following.

President Seidel: “We will not allow units of UW to require job candidates to submit statements regarding diversity, equity and inclusion. We will not have a requirement for employees to be evaluated on components of diversity, equity and inclusion in the performance evaluation process. These actions reaffirm UW’s commitment to merit-based employment practices including hiring and promotion.

Well, that is half a loaf. Seidel has a tough job, heading a liberal institution in a very conservative state.  

If the legislature really wants UW to get out of the DEI business, their actions will need to be more fine-grained and specific. We need a DeSantis-style governor to kick butt and take DEI names in Laramie. Hat tip to Instapundit for the link.

Polls: Trump Leads in Battleground States

 The Daily Wire reports the following.

New surveys conducted by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College show former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in five of six swing states.

In a two-man race between Trump and Biden, Trump leads 51-38% among likely voters; by a whopping 13 points 51-38% in Nevada; six points 49-43% in Arizona; nine points 50-41% in Georgia; three points in Pennsylvania 48-45%; and one point in Wisconsin 47-46%; while Biden clings to a one-point margin in Michigan.

“The margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points,” The New York Times noted.

Only in WI is Trump’s lead within the margin of error, the same being true for Biden’s lead in MI. With the usual caveat that much can change between now and when voting begins, given the choice you’d rather be in Trump’s shoes than in Biden’s. 

Plus Trump drew a crowd of 100,000 in blue New Jersey. Imagine how the White House feels about that. Not bad for an accused ‘felon.’

Worm in the Apple

There are so many things to dislike about the Biden administration that it is difficult to choose which is infuriating me most at the moment. Difficult but not impossible.

Given the war going on in Gaza and the sympathetic-to-terrorism demonstrations on campuses, I believe the Biden screw-up that is most up my nose is the Deputy Assistant to the President who coordinates defense and intelligence. His name is Maher Bitar, he is a Palestinian who studied at Georgetown and Oxford.

While at Georgetown he was active in the Students for Justice in Palestine, basically a front organization for Hamas. Can you imagine him having access to all sorts of top secret Intelligence data? You know he has in his current job, and those he held under Obama.

If you've wondered at Biden's lukewarm support for Israel, I don't think you need look much farther than Mr. Bitar for an explanation. He apparently is an acolyte of Jake Sullivan, Biden's National Security Advisor.

His presence in the White House is roughly analogous to FDR having a member of the Hitler Youth as his aide de camp, which is to say it is preposterous. Wikipedia has the following photo of Bitar and his family with President Obama.

Riskier Lives

NBC News reports research findings originally published in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association. The study of some 100,000 nurses looked at mortality rates for heterosexual, lesbian, and bisexual (women) nurses. There are, of course, also male RNs, who weren’t included.

Compared to participants who identified as heterosexual, the analysis found, those who identified as lesbian or bisexual died 26% sooner, with lesbian women dying 20% sooner and bisexual women dying 37% sooner.

The study’s authors claim the differences, which are substantial, are due in part to discrimination. They also allude to increased rates of alcohol and tobacco usage among lesbian and bisexual women, neither of which would be without healthwise costs. It is also worth noting that RNs have access to Rx drugs which others lack.

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