Cook doesn't believe the Republicans can take the Senate. To do so would require the GOP to take 16 of the 18 competitive seats up for election. GOP control of the House while the Dems control the Senate will guarantee gridlock for the next two years. Many outcomes could be worse.
Cook says midterm elections come in two types, the Tip O'Neill "all-politics-is-local" type or the wave election type. Wave elections are national, driven by national issues. Seib reports that Cook says:
We're seeing just every sign in the world that this is going to be a wave, and a pretty good-sized wave.
Why does Cook think this is the case? Seib paraphrases Cook's thinking:
Democrats are selling a controversial agenda in lousy economic times. It appeared briefly in the spring that the economic trend lines might be starting to point upward. It doesn't feel that way now.
