Fifty-four percent believe the president is more liberal than they are. Twenty-four percent agree with the president's views. Thirteen percent believe the president to be more conservative than they. Presumably nine percent have no idea or refuse to state a view.
Under the entirely reasonable assumption that likely voters who agree with, or are more liberal than, the president will vote for him or stay home, he is has a reasonable chance of getting the votes of thirty-seven percent of the electorate. A presentable Republican alternative can ask for the votes of the fifty-four percent, although he or she will not get all of them.
An interesting question: for whom do voters cast their ballots when the Democrat is more liberal than they while the Republican candidate is more conservative than they? Some of these are the so-called independent voters.
Perhaps all of the above is irrelevant. A second term election tends to be a referendum on the incumbent. If the voter likes the job the incumbent has done he or she votes for a second term, if not, the opponent get the nod.
If seventeen months from now unemployment numbers and gasoline prices remain high and home prices remain low, my guess is that we get a new president.
