Saturday, June 20, 2015

Getting Real

Absent a large, brutal and effective secret police network in each, Iraq and Syria don't and won't work as nations, full stop. Saddam and Assad understood this from living there, assume both were correct. Analogs include the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.

Whatever we decide to do about Iraq, Syria and ISIS should start with sharing their understanding. I expect we are uncomfortable with a reimposition of police-state tactics. Thus we must stop trying to reassemble Humpty Dumpty, and head in some direction which doesn't leave the region a "failed state" mess. See a RealClearWorld article for an analysis.

One distinct possibility would be redrawn boundaries resulting in perhaps four nations where Syria and Iraq now moulder. I'll give them provisional names, for discussion purposes. 

Kurdistan, a northern homeland for the Kurds of both nations. 
Shiastan. southern Iraq plus Bagdad, a homeland for Shia Arabs. 
Sunnistan, central Iraq and Syria, for the Sunni Arabs of both legacy countries. 
Remainderstan, for the Chaldeans, the Alawites, the Yazidis and whoever else is hanging tough with Assad, located in northern and coastal Syria. 

Three regions have a clear majority group and the fourth is largely okay with Assad whose Alawites could also be a majority. These four might prove governable, or they might not. I allege they have some chance of success; if they are not crippled by wIthin-group tribalism.