Independence and Dignity

Bloomberg View carries an interesting rumination on the ongoing conflict between Greece and the European Union.

The ultimatum game might provide a better analogy. In the game, a player receives some money -- say, $100 -- but can keep it only by convincing a second player to accept part of the sum. If both parties are interested solely in maximizing their financial well-being, the first player should be able to offer as little as $1. After all, for the second player, $1 is better than nothing.

When real people play the game, though, that's not how it works out. The second player tends to reject any offer less than $30, seeing it as insulting. As a result, neither player gets any money. The game reaches inside people and stirs up deep emotions, demonstrating that humans are not dispassionate economic calculators. You can't understand it without thinking about human perceptions of fairness, justice and honor.

This seems to fit the current situation in Europe. The creditors think Greece, in a position of weakness, should be grateful for the relief they’ve offered and get on with economic reforms. After all, it's better than nothing. Yet Greece, while recognizing the need for reform, sees that the creditors can afford to do more and feels insulted by the suffering it must endure. If necessary, the Greeks are ready to risk blowing up the euro to preserve their independence and dignity.

If we follow the common outcome of this game, expect Greek default following a failure to agree.