Demography Is Destiny

The Wall Street Journal has a fascinating article by Gunnar Heinsohn about the demographic reasons why Afghanistan is a tough fight first for the Soviet Union and now for a NATO force that is mostly the U.S. The basic issue is the comparative birth rates:

Decade after decade, the women of Afghanistan have been averaging three to four sons each. This means even if an Afghan family loses two or more boys on the battlefield—"disposable sons"—it still has one or two male offsprings at home to carry the family into the next generation. Russian soldiers in 1979, however, were likely to be only sons. Statistically, that is also true for American soldiers in 2009.

Among several candidates for the most chilling phrase you'll hear this year, surely "disposable sons" must rank high.