Sunday, July 3, 2011

A Caveat

Texas has created more than 40% of all new jobs created in the U.S., since the recession technically ended in 2009. See this column in The Los Angeles Times, written by a liberal, who admits to choking on that statistic.

I agree with what Texas has done, making tort lawsuits more difficult and being a right to work state. On the other hand, I believe a caveat is in order. I'm not sure all states would have had Texas' results if they all followed Texas' policies.

Let's try a thought experiment. Imagine that all 50 states have, from the beginning, followed Texas pro-business policies completely. Then firms that have moved to Texas to take advantage of its favorable policies would have felt less need to do so.

I'm guessing the result would be that Texas would not have nearly half of the new jobs in the country, these jobs would be spread more thinly across the country. Perhaps what Texas has done is lure growing firms from the rest of the country.

My conclusion: before we elect Texas Governor Rick Perry president and put the entire country on the path Texas has taken, we should ask ourselves whether Texas policies cause net job growth or merely attract growing firms from elsewhere in the U.S. To the extent that it is the latter, and not the former, a national policy like that of Texas may produce less growth than we anticipate or seek.