Monday, January 23, 2012

Spengler: Egyptian Death Spiral

David P. Goldman writes for Asia Times under the pen name Spengler. He has written before about the troubles into which Egypt appears to be plunging; here he revisits this theme. Needless to say, he believes things have gotten worse.

The particular recent event which suggests this to him is the failure of the Egyptian government to place even 1/3 of the Treasury bills offered:
Yields on Egyptian government debt maturing in nine months jumped to nearly 16%, but the government could not place its local-currency debt to Egyptian investors, even at that exorbitant rate.
Spengler foresees a crash in the Egyptian economy with tourism - the foreign exchange earner - drying up and leaving no ability to pay for imported food and fuel. I'm glad I toured Egypt before the current mess.