Spengler: No Turkish Delight

David Goldman, who writes under the pen name Spengler for the Asia Times, takes a look at the politics and economy of Turkey and doesn't like anything he sees. He declares the Turkish government to be much less than democratic, something all careful observers have noticed.

Goldman then does an analysis of the Turkish economy - fiscal and monetary policy - and concludes Turkey is headed for an economic disaster. You don't have to take his word for it, he gives you the data, mostly from the Central Bank of Turkey. Goldman/Spengler concludes:

A disaster is in the making. Leave aside the economic ills of the southern Mediterranean generally, which will impinge Turkey's exports (about half of which go to the European community): Turkey's financial system is reaching the end of the rope. A sudden adjustment in the current account accompanied by large-scale bankruptcies among Turkish businesses and widespread unemployment will make 2012 an ugly year for the Turkish economy, and an even uglier year for Turkish politics.

A year from now we'll see if he is correct.