His third prediction - who will win the presidency - is shakier, something he admits. He predicts Obama will win reelection by narrowly beating Romney.
Brandus lists several factors against reelection: low approval ratings, high misery index, and a feeble economy. Plus he notes "Romney's views correlate very closely with most Americans, and Obama's do not."
Accurately, he says neither man will arouse much voter enthusiasm and thus turnout will be lower. Brandus believes Obama starts with such high approval that, in spite of all of the foregoing, he will still narrowly win.
A greater possibility is that, between now and November, the economy will improve noticeably and Obama will take credit for that improvement.
