Barone Looks Ahead

Senior political analyst Michael Barone writes for National Journal about the electoral map that shows each House district colored either blue or red according to whether it will be represented by a Democrat or Republican. As a regular COTTonLINE reader you've probably already seen the sea of red with small dots of blue trim, mostly around the edges.

Of course it’s misleading. Congressional districts are of basically equal population, and Democrats tend to roll up big margins in densely populated areas. (snip) The map overstates (GOP) dominance. But it does tell us something about the geographic and cultural isolation of the core groups of the Democratic Party: gentry liberals and blacks.

Analysts who separate Americans into two tidy categories — white and nonwhite — assume that the nonwhite category will grow and that whites can’t vote any more Republican than they have historically.

The first assumption is well founded. But Hispanics and Asians are not replicating blacks’ voting behavior, just as they haven’t shared their unique historic heritage. In some states they’re voting more like whites than blacks.

The second assumption may not be true at all. History shows that self-conscious minorities tend to vote cohesively. (snip) It’s an understandable response to feeling outnumbered and faced with an unappealing agenda. In that case, Romney’s 59 percent or House Republicans’ 60 percent among whites may turn out to be more a floor than a ceiling.

Blacks vote as a bloc; when they become a minority whites may do the same thing. The worm turns.